The Ephemeric

So now the biggest thing on people's minds is what can we expect in the near future? Obama made a lot of lofty promises, can he possibly keep all of them? What about the various national crises we're currently facing?

I think that in order to answer this question we have to break into two main areas: the future of America and the world and the future of the Republican party.

As I've said, the country is in a dire state right now, with economic crisis and multiple wars and a serious energy crisis.

The economy looks bright with Obama now. It doesn't take a genius to see how much better the economy was under Clinton. It does however take a statistician to show that there is a quite significant trend in post election years for the economy to boom with a Democrat President.

With regards to war, Obama was one of the few candidates this year who voted against the Iraq war. He also showed unique prescience in predicting the conflict in Georgia before McCain or anyone else at a time when most Americans (and Palin) had no clue where Georgia was. On the other hand, neither Bush nor McCain even knows the difference between a Sunni or Shi'ite muslim, which is disgraceful.

Further more, any 11 year old preparing for an exam knows the benefit of working to a timetable, but apparently McCain did not, even when Iraq and even Bush and everyone else supported Obama's plan.

Time and time again Obama has shown he's best equipped to deal with these wars, and with our new and improved image and standing abroad he will be uniquely capable of handling these crises. America's enemies thrive on pointing out the 'fake' democracy of America, a country run by the 'white satan' who wants to conquer the world. How are they going to convince people that Barack Hussein Obama is a 'white devil'?

And with regards to energy. The GOP has long supported the 'moronic denial' position, refusing to acknowledge that fossil fuels are limited on this planet, likely because half their income comes from oil companies. Even more drilling will give us at most a few decades more oil at best, and we won't even see cheaper gas prices for many years. All the while we will still be largely dependent on the foreign oil that's forcing us to stay in the middle east in the first place.

The obvious solution (to Obama anyway) is that we need to put that money into developing alternative fuels. Not only will this help the environment, lower gas prices and remove our dependence on foreign oil, all without having to drill in our wildlife reserves; but we also HAVE to be the first to come up with this technology if we are to avoid becoming dependent on foreign energy again. That is why time is of the essence.

There is a paradigm shift in energy right now and we need to get their first. If we do then we will be the world's supply of this technology and rather than paying an arm and a leg for foreign energy, they will actually pay us! and create millions of jobs at the same time! This is the keystone in Obama's economy plan as well, it is crucial and one of the biggest reasons for voting for Obama. Let's just be thankful he got elected because we simply can't afford to put this off any longer.

But how quickly will all this come about? Obviously no crisis will just resolve itself over night. I imagine Obama will have to spend most of his first term fixing the country and returning us to the level we were at 8 years ago. The economy could pick back up within a year or two, especially with the typical boost that a democrat president brings to the stock markets. Tighter regulations on spending and reducing corporate greed will see markets pick up and debts reduced, money will flood into the middle class and upwards, rather than the traditional 'trickle down' scheme that failed so badly under Republicans. Expect this by 2010.

Healthcare changes and withdrawal Iraq will be sooner. 16 months for Iraq and likely near immediate change in the healthcare system. Taxes will be generally lower for most Americans which will obviously reduce the amount of cash Obama has, so he will need to pull off some clever restructuring of the financial system to get the funds he needs. That will allow us to focus on the bigger wars. Afghanistan needs to be dealt with, and likely Pakistan, Iran also needs attention if they can not be negotiated with. The hope obviously is that we can negotiate with Iran and Pakistan and then be able to focus all our efforts onto hunting terrorists. This will be a primary focus of the next four years, and hopefully by 2012 we'll have a better idea of how this is going to play out. Iraq will be done by then, hopefully Iran and Pakistan will have backed down by then.

Stem cell research, energy investment and massive education reforms are also in the works, but these things need money, and a lot of it. As such these will be the last things to come along, once the economy starts to pick up. If Obama gets a chance to devote time to these initiatives then it won't be until his last year probably, and definitely more of a project for his second term should he get re-elected. Energy research is the most likely one of these advanced projects to see in the near future, since it plays such a huge part in economy reform as well. If Obama serves two terms, we should have this alternative fuel industry set up in about 10 years, that will likely be Obama's big legacy.

Now as for the Republican party. Quite frankly they're dead right now. Out of the white house, a tiny minority in the house and senate and the most unpopular the party has ever been in its history. The one big legacy of the Bush administration is that no one will ever trust this Republican party again. They have come to symbolize hate and intolerance and fear and lies, dominated by the extreme far right, religious fanatics, rich spoilt elites from the oil companies, and quite frankly, the idiots in America, your joe six-packs think someone like Palin is a good thing for a national leader. Only amongst these nuts could the term 'intellectual' be a bad thing for a presidential candidate.

This is why the party is dying now and one of two things will happen. Either the Republican party will continue to live in denial and refuse to see what's happening and keep things running as they are now, which is actually surprisingly likely with these guys. Or they will see the massive changes that have come and that people simply won't tolerate their brand of politics and are scared by their religious fanaticism.

The fact is that the Republican party badly needs a complete overhaul. It needs to move more into the centre and completely cut out the far right extremists that dominate their image right now. It HAS to do this if it ever wants to win again, that's the fact of the matter.

Whatever rises out of the ashes of the old Republican party may not even go by the same name. It is entirely likely that the focus of the new party will be on fiscal conservatism and less on social issues. Many predict the party will re-emerge with more of a Libertarian flavor, and maybe in fact just be replaced by the current Libertarian party.

Either way it'll be a massive change, and it is highly likely that by the next election, or perhaps the one after that, we will see a political race with two credible political parties running on real substance and logic, with not a bible or fearmonger in sight. And THAT in itself is a massive massive victory for the Democrats, for Americans, and for people all over the world.