The Ephemeric

Election day is finally upon us, a closely fought race between two people 90% of Americans hope never to hear from again. We may be a little late to this party, but here are The Ephemeric's last minute predictions before the polls close.




Presidential Election: Obama Re-elected
Democratic Party electoral votes: 332
Republican Party electoral votes: 206
Key States to watch: CO, OH, VA, FL

The media has been making much of this "too close to call" election, in what is almost certainly nothing to do with a desire for high ratings come election night. The fact is that, love him or hate him, at no point during this election has Barack Obama held a losing position in the polls. Even when Mitt Romney has led in the national polls, the State level polling has never shown Romney with a winning position in the electoral college.

Some have tried to blame biased polling, or other unseemly methods of fraud, but the fact is that particularly in recent cycles the polling consensus is usually pretty good. In 2008 RealClearPolitics.com's poll aggregate was accurate to within 0.3% of the final popular vote. Meanwhile FiveThirtyEight.com blogger Nate Silver used his polling-based forecast model to correctly predict 49 out of 50 states and all 35 Senate races. The undeniable truth is that the polling has been quite clear in showing an Obama advantage, and if Romney is going to win, it will require a break from historical precedent.

The four closest States in terms of polling include Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida. These are all States that Obama carried in 2008, and he has led in the polls there for much of this election cycle. Following Romney's strong victory in the first Presidential debate, his subsequent polling surge saw him lead or tie in each of these States aside from Ohio. The problem Mitt Romney faces is that realistically he must win each of these States to win the election. If Obama wins even one, then Romney would have to over-perform in a more reliably blue state like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, and right now there's little in the polling or anywhere else to suggest this is likely. If one of those states is called for Obama, it's a good sign that the election is pretty much wrapped up.



Senate Elections: Democrats retain majority
Democratic Party Senate seats: 53
Republican Party Senate seats: 47
Key States to watch: IN, MT, VA, MA

Earlier in the cycle the Republican Party was considered near certain to take a majority in the Senate. The Democratic majority was slim, and the 2012 cycle presented a far more favourable lineup of pickup opportunities for the Republicans even compared to 2010. However in recent months there has been a major turnaround, and the RCP average now expects Democrats to maintain their current majority. Nate Silver predicts the same, and suggests that the Democrats are equally likely to gain a seat as lose one.


So how has this happened? For most of the past year, Obama's poll numbers have been on the rise. This seems to have had a knock-on effect with the closest Senate races. Races like Massachusetts  and Virginia that were previously considered complete toss-ups are now quite consistently leaning blue in the polls. The other big factor is the Republican Party itself. It's hard to ignore the fact that the party keeps shooting itself in the foot as it were. It cost them the Senate majority in 2010 when off-the-wall candidates like Christine O'Donnell and Sharon Angle threw away what should have been easy victories, and this year history seems to be repeating. The obvious examples are Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana, two states that should have been a formality for the Republicans, but now lean Democrat thanks to the two candidates' unorthodox comments on "rape" of all things.

A Republican majority in the Senate looks out of reach now, but they still have a very good shot of making gains. Whatever the result, few analysts expect a change by more than a seat or two in either direction.