The Ephemeric

  

Welcome back to The Ephemeric. It's that time of year again where this blog astounds you with its super accurate Oscar predictions. Ideally I would have liked to post this last week, but unfortunately it has been about four months since I have been able to get away from work. Instead, we will need to make do with what is a very last minute effort!

I'm busy, you're busy, I won't waste your time. Please find below predictions for the big night. You may not have seen the big films this year, or be familiar with the latest hype tearing through Hollywood; if so consider the following a crib sheet for what lies ahead tonight, and perhaps even a sneak peek at who might just be walking away with the big prize.


Best Picture

Nominations:

• The Father – Philippe Carcassonne, Jean-Louis Livi and David Parfitt
• Judas and the Black Messiah – Ryan Coogler, Charles D. King and Shaka King
• Mank – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski
• Minari – Christina Oh
• Nomadland – Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears and Chloé Zhao
• Promising Young Woman – Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox and Josey McNamara
• Sound of Metal – Bert Hamelinick and Sacha Ben Harroche
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Stuart M. Besser and Marc Platt

And the winner: Nomadland
Who should really win: The Trial of the Chicago 7


Best Director

Nominations:

• Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
• David Fincher – Mank
• Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
• Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
• Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

And the winner: Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
Who should really win: David Fincher – Mank


Best Actor

Nominations:

• Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal as Ruben Stone
• Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom as Levee Green
• Anthony Hopkins – The Father as Anthony
• Gary Oldman – Mank as Herman J. Mankiewicz
• Steven Yeun – Minari as Jacob Yi

And the winner: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom as Levee Green
Who should really win: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom as Levee Green


Best Actress

Nominations:

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom as Ma Rainey
• Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday as Billie Holiday
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman as Martha Weiss
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland as Fern
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman as Cassandra "Cassie" Thomas

And the winner: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman as Cassandra "Cassie" Thomas
Who should really win: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman as Cassandra "Cassie" Thomas


Best Supporting Actor

Nominations:

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 as Abbie Hoffman
• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah as Fred Hampton
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami... as Sam Cooke
• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal as Joe
• Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah as William "Bill" O'Neal

And the winner: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah as Fred Hampton
Who should really win: Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami... as Sam Cooke


Best Supporting Actress

Nominations:

• Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm as Tutar Sagdiyev
• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy as Bonnie "Mamaw" Vance
• Olivia Colman – The Father as Anne
• Amanda Seyfried – Mank as Marion Davies
• Youn Yuh-jung – Minari as Soon-ja
 

And the winner: Youn Yuh-jung – Minari as Soon-ja
Who should really win: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm as Tutar Sagdiyev


Best Original Screenplay

Nominations:

• Judas and the Black Messiah – Screenplay by Will Berson and Shaka King; Story by Berson, King, Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas
• Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
• Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
• Sound of Metal – Screenplay by Abraham Marder and Darius Marder; Story by Derek Cianfrance and D. Marder
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin

And the winner: Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
Who should really win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin


Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominations:

• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja and Dan Swimer; Story by Baron Cohen, Hines, Nina Pedrad and Swimer; Based on the character by Baron Cohen
• The Father – Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, based on the play by Zeller
• Nomadland – Chloé Zhao, based on the book by Jessica Bruder
• One Night in Miami... – Kemp Powers, based on his play
• The White Tiger – Ramin Bahrani, based on the novel by Aravind Adiga

And the winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja and Dan Swimer; Story by Baron Cohen, Hines, Nina Pedrad and Swimer; Based on the character by Baron Cohen
Who should really win: One Night in Miami... – Kemp Powers, based on his play