The Ephemeric

Explanation: This awards season has shaped up to be a two-horse race between CODA and The Power of the Dog, the latter of which had generally been considered the presumptive favourite. There are many reasons to think that CODA will fall short: the lack of below-the-line nominations, (a travesty in and of itself) its early 2021 release date, the lack of a big name filmmaker and its relatively modest awards-season campaign efforts. Despite this, CODA has gone to pick up two of the three biggest and most predictive pre-Oscar awards, the Producers' Guild Award for best film and Screen-Actors Guild Award for best cast (the other major award, the Directors' Guild Award for best director, went to The Power of the Dog). For this reason, plus the fact that, you know, CODA is a vastly superior film to The Power of the Dog, I am going to go with CODA for the win. As to which film should win. CODA is an excellent film and a deserved winner, but I still contend that the peak of 2021 cinema was Belfast, an absolutely masterful and impeccably produced picture.


Best Director

Nominations:

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

And the winner: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Who should really win: Kenneth Branagh - Belfast

Explanation: Jane Campion was always going to be a strong contender for this prize. She is one of those beloved and highly technically adept filmmakers that the Academy loves to celebrate. Having already won the DGA award for best director, she is basically a lock here. But I think there's more to directing than just slick cinematography (after all, that is why there is a separate award for best cinematography). The handiwork of a great director can be seen in everything, from the staging, the attention to background detail, to the choreography of the actors. I think you rarely see a film where every detail has been so masterfully crafted as with Kenneth Branagh's Belfast. He would be my pick for this prize.


Best Actor

Nominations:

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos as Desi Arnaz
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog as Phil Burbank
• Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom! as Jonathan Larson
• Will Smith – King Richard as Richard Williams
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth as Lord Macbeth

And the winner: Will Smith - King Richard as Richard Williams
Who should really win: Will Smith - King Richard as Richard Williams

Explanation: I feel bad for Andrew Garfield, who in any other year would have been in with a good shout for his musical-biographical turn in Tick, Tick... Boom! But this year it was only ever going to go to one person. Hollywood loves to reward lifetime achievement with its acting prizes. Will Smith has been around forever and has a number of nominations to his name at this point, there was always going to be a sense of "maybe it's his turn". But this is not some DiCaprio-esque coronation, Smith's performance in a complex and tonally challenging role is undoubtedly excellent. For my money, he just about edges it.


Best Actress

Nominations:

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye as Tammy Faye Bakker
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter as Leda Caruso
• Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers as Janis Martínez Moreno
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos as Lucille Ball
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer as Diana, Princess of Wales

And the winner: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye as Tammy Faye Bakker
Who should really win: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye as Tammy Faye Bakker

Explanation: Best actress is always a tricky one to call. The bigger films of the year still tend to focus on male protagonists (or perhaps those with male protagonists get better traction with the Academy, make of that what you will) and so these nominations tend to come from less widely distributed pictures. Nevertheless, the usual factors apply. Jessica Chastain now has three unsuccessful Oscar nominations to her name and has collected several of the big acting prizes already this year. I expect this will be her year.


Best Supporting Actor

Nominations:

• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast as Pop
• Troy Kotsur – CODA as Frank Rossi
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog as George Burbank
• J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos as William Frawley
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog as Peter Gordon

And the winner: Troy Kotsur – CODA as Frank Rossi
Who should really win: Troy Kotsur – CODA as Frank Rossi

Explanation: The main tools of an actor are his face and his voice. Conveying emotion without one of the two requires extraordinary skill and that is precisely what Troy Kotsur has demonstrated in CODA. Ciarán Hinds comes close, but it's difficult to see this award not going to Kotsur, especially if CODA ends up having a good night.

Explanation: Ariana DeBose is having a bit of a moment. From bit-part player in Hamilton to a starring turn in AppleTV+'s hit musical series Schmigadoon, and now headlining a Spielberg picture. West Side Story may have been a qualified success, but one thing it did not lack was charisma in its second lead actress. DeBose is no longer just a star in the making and it seems to only be a matter of time before she becomes a household name.


Best Original Screenplay

Nominations:

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
• Don't Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
• King Richard – Zach Baylin
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

And the winner: Don't Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
Who should really win: Don't Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota

Explanation: It may not have been especially subtle, but Don't Look Up is still clever, entertaining and deeply poignant, anchored by some very underrated performances (DiCaprio and Rylance in particular). This is one of those films that grows on you over time, and should be considered required watching in today's world.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominations:

• CODA – Sian Heder; based on the original motion picture screenplay La Famille Bélier written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe; based on the short story by Haruki Murakami
• Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth; based on the novel by Frank Herbert
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal; based on the novel by Elena Ferrante
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion; based on the novel by Thomas Savage

And the winner: CODA – Sian Heder; based on the original motion picture screenplay La Famille Bélier written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau
Who should really win: CODA – Sian Heder; based on the original motion picture screenplay La Famille Bélier written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau

Explanation: A lock if CODA has a good night, and perhaps even if it doesn't. Telling a story without words (for large portions of the film anyway), in a way that is compelling to audiences, is a remarkable accomplishment and a fine example of the artistry behind good screenwriting. CODA deserves this prize perhaps more than any other.