Saturday, 9 November 2024
It was tipped as the closest polled election in modern history, a true tossup. Ultimately, the 2024 coin flip did end up landing in the direction of Donald Trump, who will return to the White House for a second term, completing an undeniably remarkable political comeback for someone whose political career had been considered by most to be finished. The world is stunned once again as we head into a new era of deep uncertainty. How did this happen, what can we learn from it, and, looking at it objectively as a realist, what actually happens next?
Results
These results are undeniably quite remarkable. Having lost the national popular vote in both of his previous Presidential bids, Donald Trump is on course to win it in 2024. He will be the first Republican to do so in 20 years. If his 2016 win was narrow and tinged with good fortune, the same can not be said about 2024. This is a good, decisive win for him.
He has gained ground across the country in just about every region and with every demographic, by an almost uniform margin. His victory appears to have been propelled by stronger turnout from rural voters, a demographic that many pundits had thought to be essentially maxed out in 2020, and by making inroads with non-white voters, particularly young males. While he does not appear to have regained lost ground with suburban and highly educated voters, nor does he seem to have lost any further ground with these voters.
While Trump was considered to have a good chance of victory, few expected him to win the national popular vote or to make the kinds of inroads with typically Democratic demographics that he has done.
When all is said and done, he is likely to have swept the battleground states, claiming a clear margin in the electoral college.
Interpretation
The first thing that jumps out from the results is that the polling averages were actually quite good this year. Pollsters took a lot of stick in both 2016 and 2020 for underestimating Trump's numbers, and while he will overperform the projected margins by around 2%, it is not an especially high error and well within normal expectations. Unfortunately for Kamala, the polls were close enough that a small error was enough to swing the race. This is democracy, sometimes you win close races, sometimes you lose them.
Interpretation
The first thing that jumps out from the results is that the polling averages were actually quite good this year. Pollsters took a lot of stick in both 2016 and 2020 for underestimating Trump's numbers, and while he will overperform the projected margins by around 2%, it is not an especially high error and well within normal expectations. Unfortunately for Kamala, the polls were close enough that a small error was enough to swing the race. This is democracy, sometimes you win close races, sometimes you lose them.
But while he was considered to have a good chance of victory, this result does still come as something of a surprise. The polls were close, but he did nevertheless trail Kamala Harris consistently, particularly among the so-called higher quality and more reputable pollsters. In actual fact, these pollsters ended up being less accurate than the averages. Selzer, the revered gold standard pollster of Iowa, known for being typically spot on in her state, endured an astonishing 17% miss, while other top of the line pollsters like Marist and Muhlenberg will end up 4-5% off. For whatever reason, these more established pollsters clearly have issues reaching Trump voters that has not been fully understood. The relative accuracy of the averages will certainly place a feather in the cap of all the data evangelists, many of whom had been taking stick for these views during the campaign.
Conversely, many of the other typical indicators failed miserably. The special elections, the primaries, the economic metrics and fundraising data, all pointed to a strong year for Democrats, which ultimately did not come to pass. Earlier in the cycle, Nate Cohn of NYT made waves for suggesting that this may indicate disproportionate strength for Trump among lower propensity voters, a prediction which, in hindsight, has turned out to be dead on. A lot of analysts (myself included) owe Nate a big apology for doubting him.
The results of this election will additionally require a radical rethink of how we conduct a political campaign. By any traditional measure, Kamala's campaign was light years ahead of Trump's. Trump had basically no ground game, no get out the vote operation, very little direct fundraising, was poorly disciplined and flopped at every traditional milestone, ie the debate, the convention. This all appears to have had no effect on the outcome, and it is clear that the things politicos consider to be essential infrastructure for a Presidential campaign may no longer be all that meaningful in this day and age.
So the big question on everyone's mind will be, why did this happen. This is a candidate who barely lucked his way to victory in 2016, and led his party to resounding defeat in every election since. During that time he attempted to violently overthrow the US Government, was found by a court to have raped a woman, convicted of felony fraud, to only scratch the surface. It was one thing when he won in 2016 as an unknown quantity and change candidate, but in 2024 we know what to expect, we know the chaos and ruination his first term brought to the country. Most people will be watching this and wondering, how did he suddenly become more popular than ever?
I hate to sound glib, or dismissive of my fellow Americans, but there really is no other way to say it. There are a lot of voters who simply are not well informed and have only a vague awareness of all of these things, and/or morally detached to the point where they just don't care about it. I say this not as an insult. I think there is a problem with the highly engaged, terminally online political enthusiast assuming that everyone else will be seeing the same news coverage as them, hearing the same sound bites. People really don't appreciate how politically disengaged the median voter is. I speak to Trump supporters all the time who tell me that they like him because he's "funny" or "entertaining". They know him as that businessman from the TV, and pretty much tune out the rest as "political stuff". That's really what it comes down to. Democrats can get outraged all they want (rightly) about January 6, your typical voter really isn't thinking about that. It doesn't affect them directly, so it's not their problem. Democrats have yet to find a solution to this.
It also can't be ignored that Trump has twice won against female candidates, and lost to a straight white man. As unseemly as it is to say, it seems pretty clear that America is still a pretty bigoted country that may not be ready to elect a woman President. One has to wonder if they may have been better served sticking with Biden, despite his issues. As much as I hate to say, this needs to be taken into account. The presumed "next in line" candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer may simply be too high risk for America's voters.
I would also like to give credit to Joe Biden. He has not been a bad President by any means. He was dealt an abysmal hand, dug the country out of a ditch and created something of an economic miracle. But it is clear that he should never have run for a second term. Dropping out when he did was probably still the right call, but it left Democrats with an untested candidate that no one had voted for, with a tiny amount of time to build a campaign. Had he declined to run for a second term from the start, and allowed a full primary process to play out, might things have turned out differently?
So what comes next? Understandably there is a great deal of fear in the country today, uncertainty as to what a second Trump term might bring. There has been a lot of talk of fascism, Project 2025, Trump turning the army on his own people and all manner of things. I have to say, as much as I dislike Trump, I think these fears are somewhat overblown. The fact is that the Office of President has quite limited powers in many ways, especially with thin majorities in Congress. In reality, there's only so much damage he can do in four years, and most of it is easily reversible by his successor. So for now, I don't really buy that this is the end of the Republic as some are saying, just another four years of chaotic governance for us to endure.
To be clear, that is not to diminish the seriousness of what has happened. A great many people's lives will be directly affected by America's choice. People will almost certainly die as a result of his abortion and healthcare positions. There is nothing good about what the next four years has to offer, but it really is just four years, after which America will have another chance to make a better choice.
The more significant impact may well be felt overseas, where Trump's pro-Russia policies will leave the rest of the world in a precarious and unsafe position. The situation in Ukraine will become dire without American support, and there's every indication that Putin's wars of aggression will not stop at Kyiv. Europe will need to step up its game in the absence of American leadership. The Middle East is also likely to become even bloodier. Trump has no interest in helping Gaza or Palestine and will just let Netanyahu run roughshod over the region. I would not be at all surprised if he subsequently dragged us into a war with Iran as a result.
There is no denying that this is a sad day. It is sad that the rule of law will not be upheld with respect to the crimes committed by Donald Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists. It is embarrassing for Americans to have made this choice after everything that has happened, and the disaster that was Trump's first term. America has sadly failed its gravest test. Its institutions have failed utterly, and shown itself to be a nation of ignorance and corruption. If Putin's goal over this past decade has been to shine a spotlight on how ineffective, dysfunctional and vulnerable to manipulation western liberal democracies are, he has unquestionably proven this beyond doubt. That's the sad truth. 2020 appeared to be a turning point in that conflict, a redemption for America and our system of democracy. Instead it has turned out to be a mere temporary setback for Putin. I fear that culture war has now been lost, and that is a fact that America will need to grapple with going forward.
Thursday, 31 October 2024
We are now less than one week away from the 2024 Presidential election, an election that, depending on which news networks you view, either portends the end of American democracy, or an apocalyptic invasion by immigrants. Hyperbole aside, the results of this election will have major ramifications as to the direction of the country and indeed the world at large, from the Ukraine war to the future of NATO and global climate accords. Per tradition, it is time for this blog to deliver its forecast, shedding some light on the likely outcome and making a few final predictions.
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Introduction
Here we are again, keeping alive that biennial tradition of forecasting the US elections. The reason I do this is simple: there is a ton of bad analysis out there, as well as flat-out misinformation. It is increasingly difficult to maintain a clear view of American politics (by design), and my intent is to provide just a little bit of unvarnished, unmanipulated context.
Indeed, this blog has a pretty good track record when it comes to these forecasts. In the 2020 forecast we correctly called the winner in all three of the Presidential race, the House race and the Senate race. The Senate predictions were within 1 seat of the actual results and the Presidential predictions called every single state correctly except for Iowa and the lone electoral vote from Maine's 2nd Congressional district. In 2022, this blog was one of the few places to correctly predict that Democrats would hold the Senate and remain competitive in the House, in an election where most were predicting a red wave that never materialised. I say this not to brag but to point out, in all frankness, that if you're looking for some indication of how this thing is leaning and what is likely to happen on November 5th, you could do a lot worse than The Ephemeric.
Presidential Election Verdict: Kamala Harris Elected President
Predicted Electoral Map: Kamala Harris (D) - 286, Donald Trump (R) - 252.
The above map is based on data from a variety of aggregators, including Split Ticket, Fivethirtyeight, and analysts including Sabato and Cook Political, and shows the expected electoral map. The rest is pretty self explanatory: dark blue represents safe Democrat wins, light blue leans Democrat, grey is toss up. Meanwhile on the other side, light red to dark red represents lean to likely Republican.
It's also worth noting the down-ballot races in these states (more on these later). Democrats are currently running with significant leads against Republicans in statewide races in WI, AZ and NC. The latter two in particular feature especially problematic Republicans with major scandals or popularity issues. The suggestion is that this could potentially have a knock-on effect on the Presidential election. While this is plausible, history tells us that the top of the ticket race tends to be the greater driver to the polls. In other words, Trump is more likely to lift up unpopular candidates, than be dragged down by them. In practice, the result will likely be somewhere in the middle, but closer to Trump's numbers. This may seem minor, but with such close margins it could be material.
House of Representatives Verdict: Democratic Majority
Current House Map: Democrats - 212, Republicans - 220.
Predicted House Map: Democrats - 226, Republicans - 209.
Approximate Net Change: Democrats gain 15-20 seats.
How things have changed. For the longest time, the House was considered to be a bit of a foregone conclusion. The extreme partisan gerrymandering employed by the Republicans resulted in a House where it was extremely unlikely that they would lose control, even in a year in which voters decisively backed their opponents.
Current Senate Map: Democrats - 51, Republicans - 49.
Predicted Senate Map: Democrats- 49, Republicans - 51.
Approximate Net Change: Republicans gain 2 seats.
Key states to watch: AZ, MT, NE, OH, TX
Let's begin by stating the obvious: this is a bad map for Democrats. Control of the Senate depends on them successfully defending numerous states that Trump is expected to carry easily, with very few apparent pick up opportunities. Even in a good year for Democrats, they would probably lose this map. The fact that it is even close is due to the gulf in candidate quality, a consistent feature in down-ballot races throughout the Trump era.
Conclusion
So there it is. It's a close election, and one without close parallel due to the unique events that have occurred during the campaign. Nevertheless, the data presents a tangible, albeit narrow favourite. Ultimately, while the margins are tight, Harris simply has an easier path to 270. But this is far from a done deal. The race could still change in the final days, there could be polling error one way or the other, or independents/undecided voters could break unpredictably for one candidate. Such is the magic of democratic elections, you're never entirely sure which way it is going to end up. This forecast is probably about as accurate a sense of where things are going as can be formed right now, so take it for what it is, and good luck.
So let's get to it. The White House, House of Representatives and Senate are all up for grabs. Despite what you may have heard in the media, there is a favourite in all three contests, although it remains very close. The topline prediction is this: The Ephemeric predicts Kamala Harris to win the Presidency, the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans to take control of the Senate.
Presidential Election Verdict: Kamala Harris Elected President
Predicted Electoral Map: Kamala Harris (D) - 286, Donald Trump (R) - 252.The above map is based on data from a variety of aggregators, including Split Ticket, Fivethirtyeight, and analysts including Sabato and Cook Political, and shows the expected electoral map. The rest is pretty self explanatory: dark blue represents safe Democrat wins, light blue leans Democrat, grey is toss up. Meanwhile on the other side, light red to dark red represents lean to likely Republican.
A few notes about this map. I have attempted to remove "toss ups" to the extent reasonable. I think analysts in general have become a bit too lazy about calling close states toss ups, rather than making an actual prediction. For example, Cook recently referred to a Wisconsin Senate race, with a polling average margin of 6%, as a toss up, which is just silly. For me, a toss up is a state that is literally too close to reasonably call, and I am drawing that line at under a 0.5% margin, and generally only where there is high quality polling indicating a victory for both candidates. A candidate leading by 1% in a state, yeah it's close but I can reasonably say that it's leaning towards one candidate based on the available data, so long as that lead is consistent in multiple high quality polls over an extended period of time. A 0.1% lead either way, on the other hand, is completely meaningless. I want to be clear though, just because a state isn't shown above as a toss up doesn't mean it isn't competitive, or realistically winnable by either side, just that there is a reasonably identifiable favourite as it stands.
In addition to looking at the polls, I am also taking into account other sources of data. This includes special elections & primaries, key economic data and trends, and the early voting data that has been made public.
A quick caveat on the last one: early voting data should always be taken with a heavy pinch of salt. Historically, this is not especially indicative of the final results. Democrats usually do better in early and mail voting, so the fact that the early returns favour them doesn't tell us anything useful. But this can provide some useful clues when we compare the data to our priors and expectations. For example, in 2024 we would expect the volume of early/mail votes to be reduced from 2020, which took place in the height of the pandemic, and less Democratic-leaning due to the Republicans making a big early voting push, compared to 2020 when they attempted to brand it as some kind of fraud. Accordingly, if we see a state where turnout or Democratic advantage is increased relative to 2020, that wouldn't necessarily mean anything definitive, but it would be a bullish sign for Democrats.
There are seven realistically competitive battleground states in the 2024 Presidential race: WI, MI, PA, NV, AZ, NC and GA. Beyond these seven, we could theoretically get an upset, like Democrats winning Florida or Texas, but it's unlikely. I would be quite confident in saying that all the other states will vote as indicated on the above map.
While this race remains close and competitive, Kamala Harris is favoured. There has been a lot of hype in the media about how this race is a toss up, or too close to call, and that really just isn't the case. Kamala Harris leads in the polls, both nationally and in sufficient battleground states to win, and has done pretty much constantly and consistently since she entered the race.
In fact, for all the talk about how unpredictable this election is, or the constant media oscillations between who's on top, this has been about as boring and consistent an election as we've seen in recent years. That may come as a surprise in a race where one candidate was convicted of multiple felonies, and the other quit halfway through the race to be replaced by his Vice President, but despite this the polling in recent weeks has been very steady. There's been a lot of chatter of different candidates having momentum, or surges in the polls, but as you can see, there's been basically zero net movement in the last several weeks.
The high quality polling currently has Kamala around 3% ahead nationally. As anyone who follows American politics will know, the national popular vote is not what wins you the election, it's the electoral college. This gives us the so-called electoral college gap, ie the national margin that a candidate needs to have in order to be roughly tied in sufficient states to win the election. In 2020, Biden won the electoral college somewhat comfortably with a national popular vote margin of around 4.5%. It is generally expected that the Democratic Party candidate will need to be winning by around 2% nationally in order to win the electoral college, although there is some evidence that this gap may be narrower in 2024. The long and short of it is that a 3% national margin should be sufficient for Kamala to win, and in fact she can probably afford for the race to be a little bit narrower than that. If her lead ends up being less than 2%, however, then it starts getting a bit dicey.
But while we can infer, to an extent, Kamala's chances based on the national margin, ultimately it's victory in the individual key states that will win this election. There's no sense beating around the bush, the key to this election is the rust belt battleground, WI, MI and PA. If Kamala wins those three states, she wins the election regardless of what happens elsewhere.
The good news for Democrats is that Kamala has led in all three of these states pretty much constantly since entering the race, and is favoured to win all three. In fact, you need to look pretty hard to find high quality polling showing Kamala trailing in any of these three states. The data is consistent enough for me to say that Kamala is favoured in both MI and PA, albeit narrowly, with only WI remaining a true toss up.
The Pennsylvania position requires a little more elaboration. Throughout this election, the primary focus of media coverage has been on Pennsylvania. It's obvious why, it's a massive state with a lot of electoral votes. It is reasonable to say that whoever wins this state is favoured to win the election as a whole. It is also the state that, in most analysts' estimation, is the closest in the polls. The last few days have seen a number of polls ranging from Trump +1 to Kamala + 2, with most showing a tie, averaging out at around +0.5% Kamala. So why don't I consider this a true toss up? A few reasons. Local and district-level polling has tended to be stronger for Kamala than the big national pollsters, with most showing Kamala either matching or improving upon Democrats' numbers in 2020. This is supported by the early numbers (keeping in mind my caveat, above, about reading too much into EV data) which is showing a higher than expected turnout in Democratic strongholds.
But more to the point, it's difficult to see where Trump gets the votes he needs to win PA. Even the polls which have been more bullish for him still only show him with around 46% of the vote. There aren't enough votes in the rurals to get him up to the 49% or so he needs to plausibly win. He would need to get some serious movement towards him among either college educated suburban voters, or non-white voters in urban districts. Right now, the pollsters showing a toss up are betting on this happening, but there isn't a lot of tangible data to support it, and certainly we're not seeing that in the early vote or local polling. Conversely, there is some suggestion that pollsters may simply be "hedging" and herding towards a tie to avoid getting egg on their face - it is worth noting that most of these polls are making a point of providing data favourable to both sides, eg a poll showing Trump ahead head-to-head, but losing in the full field of candidates, or a poll showing Trump narrowly ahead with likely voters, but comfortably behind among registered voters. There does seem to be an element of pollsters not wanting to stick their necks out too far for fear of being wrong, and with that in mind it leaves me inclined to trust the local polling and fundamentals to a greater extent. Trump absolutely has a path to victory in PA, but it requires just about everything to go right for him. You would rather be Harris right now.
In my opinion, more people should be talking about Wisconsin. Of these three states, Wisconsin is the most purple, it is the one that has been closest in each of the last five electoral cycles, and the only state to regularly vote for Republicans in statewide elections in recent years. Crucially, while Pennsylvania has been trending left across recent years, Wisconsin has not, so it's much easier to believe that Wisconsin would suddenly shift to the right of 2020 and 2022 than Pennsylvania. Let's put it another way: I can't see a situation where Kamala wins Wisconsin, and loses Pennsylvania, but the reverse is very plausible. In other words, Wisconsin is the state to watch. If Kamala fails to win MI and PA, I would be surprised. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is a true toss up, and pretty much a must-win state for Trump.
Yet, this demonstrates just how much of an uphill battle Trump faces. If Kamala does win MI and PA (which seems more likely than not) then she only needs to pick up one out of WI, AZ, NC and GA. Trump would need to run the board on all of them.
Of these, Kamala leads the polls in Wisconsin. NC and GA are essentially tied, with some polls showing Kamala ahead, others showing Trump ahead, but with the margins negligible. Statistically speaking, you would expect Kamala to win one of these tied races. Arizona is a race where Trump leads, narrowly but consistently enough that you would have to call him a favourite (JD note: since writing, there have been a glut of polls in AZ showing Kamala ahead, so this may end up being more of a true toss-up than initially thought).
All in all, these four states are a coin flip. You would expect Kamala to win at least one or two of these just by probability. She could win more, she could win fewer. The bad news for Trump is he needs to win all of them. It's very possible that he does win all of them, but certainly the less likely outcome.
It's also worth noting the down-ballot races in these states (more on these later). Democrats are currently running with significant leads against Republicans in statewide races in WI, AZ and NC. The latter two in particular feature especially problematic Republicans with major scandals or popularity issues. The suggestion is that this could potentially have a knock-on effect on the Presidential election. While this is plausible, history tells us that the top of the ticket race tends to be the greater driver to the polls. In other words, Trump is more likely to lift up unpopular candidates, than be dragged down by them. In practice, the result will likely be somewhere in the middle, but closer to Trump's numbers. This may seem minor, but with such close margins it could be material.
Then there are the often overlooked primary and special election results from this past year. Throughout this election cycle the election results have been indicative of a far more left-leaning year than the polls, with primary and special election results very strongly bullish towards the Democrats. Democrats have consistently overperformed their polls, including in some key bellwether contests and open primaries where they were able to run against Republicans. Trump, meanwhile, generally underperformed his primary polling to the tune of 15-20%. He even managed to lose a few states, making him one of the only incumbent or quasi-incumbent candidates to do so in the modern era.
In addition, the fundamentals clearly favour Kamala, with a strong economy, indicators trending the right way for the incumbent party, and a Presidential election year which, historically, has resulted in greater turnout from Democrat-leaning demographics. When you get this close to the election, the polls matter more, but in a tied race, these factors may just prove definitive.
Lastly, there is the effect of Trump himself. Trump likes to brand himself as a winner, but the undeniable fact is that Democrats have won pretty much every election since 2016, with the Republican nominee's divisive brand of politics receiving increasingly diminishing returns with each cycle.
So Kamala is the favourite, but that isn't really how the race has been portrayed in the media. In fact, the average person following the election might be forgiven for thinking that Trump leads in the polls, or is favoured, as that is often how this election has been covered.
Why the disparity between the data and the coverage? Well there's a few reasons. The first is that the "conventional wisdom" seems to hold that Trump will over-perform his polls, as he did in 2016 and 2020. To be blunt, this view is not a particularly sharp one. Polling errors are rarely consistent from one election to the next, even with the same candidates involved - in fact, no political party has ever overperformed polls in three consecutive presidential elections. Pollsters generally adjust their methodology to account for such errors, and in many cases are more likely to overshoot than repeat the same error.
More to the point, the "polling errors" in 2016 and 2020 are a little overhyped. The 2016 polling miss resulted from the high number of undecided voters breaking for Trump, which analysts either missed or ignored - there are fewer undecided voters in 2024 (practically zero, compared to double digits in 2016), and so a much lesser risk of this happening again. The 2020 polling miss was nowhere near as substantial as claimed, and also not consistent from state to state. For example, Pennsylvania actually had zero error in 2020, while Georgia polls were actually biased towards Trump, things which never seem to be mentioned when the media discusses polling errors.
The simple fact is that there is no particular reason to think the polls will underestimate Trump. The polls in 2024 are not really comparable to either 2016 or 2020. If anything, they most closely resemble the 2022 polls, which underestimated Democrats significantly.
The most notable feature of 2022 polling was the extent to which polling averages were influenced by, frankly, junk polls. This was driven by well-known propaganda pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar, but also by a new crop of unknown polling organisations which seemed to pop out of the ether with no track record. These pollsters deluged the averages and created the impression of a right wing wave election which never materialised. By contrast, the high quality pollsters indicated a close 2022 election. As a reminder, this blog was one of the few forecasts to correctly identify this phenomenon and predict a better than expected election night for Democrats. It's important because we're seeing the exact same thing in 2024. To be clear, polling averages are still invaluable, and the best indicator we have as to an electoral outcome, but some critical scrutiny is required.
It's also an unfortunate fact that there are simply far fewer high quality polls than there used to be, and this lack of clarity is contributing to the uncertainty among forecasters. By comparison, September and October 2020 saw the release of some 20+ Pennsylvania polls from high quality pollsters, this year we have seen basically nothing until the final days, and even then only from a small number of pollsters. Why this may be the case is a topic for a separate, much longer discussion.
All of this is to say: the polls are close. There's no particular reason to think Trump will over-perform them. There may in fact be greater reason to think that Democrats will over-perform. Your best bet for predicting the election is, as always, to follow the average, while filtering for high quality, reputable pollsters.
Ultimately, you would have to favour Kamala based on the data, and Trump faces the more uphill battle to reach 270. Make no mistake, the polls are super close, and Trump could still win this, but it would be a surprise. He is certainly not the favourite, as some are suggesting. If forced to make a firm prediction, I would say Kamala to win WI and one of GA/NC. WI has polled narrowly, but consistently to Kamala's favour. NC is close enough that I think the down-ballot races could give Kamala the edge. NV is a total toss up, but the fact that this state has been trending Republican in recent years gives me the sense that it will go for Trump. At a push, I would make Kamala to be a 60/40 favourite right now, which is pretty close to where the highest rated forecasters currently have the race.
House of Representatives Verdict: Democratic Majority
Current House Map: Democrats - 212, Republicans - 220.Predicted House Map: Democrats - 226, Republicans - 209.
Approximate Net Change: Democrats gain 15-20 seats.
Key Races: AZ-01, CA-13, CA-27, CA-41, IA-01, IA-03, LA-06, NJ-07, NY-19, OR-05, NC-06, NC-13, NC-14
How things have changed. For the longest time, the House was considered to be a bit of a foregone conclusion. The extreme partisan gerrymandering employed by the Republicans resulted in a House where it was extremely unlikely that they would lose control, even in a year in which voters decisively backed their opponents.
At its worst, it was estimated that Democrats needed to win nationally by the near landslide margin of 5% just to break even. Following the 2020 redistricting, that built-in advantage seems to have all but disappeared, as demonstrated by the 2022 election in which Republicans tied the popular vote, but only won a majority in the single digits.
The new consensus estimate is that Democrats need to win nationally by about 1.5% to take a majority. Given Democrats currently lead nationally by around 3%, this would make them the narrow, but clear favourite to take control of the chamber this year.
Caveat, estimating the result in the House is far from precise. The balance ultimately comes down to individual races being won or lost, which depends on a myriad of factors beyond simply the national vote. The national vote merely serves as a useful estimate for a forecast that would ultimately require detailed analysis of hundreds of individual races. So consider this an estimate with a wide margin for error. Nevertheless, the odds remain in the Democrats' favour.
Senate Verdict: Republican Majority
Current Senate Map: Democrats - 51, Republicans - 49.
Predicted Senate Map: Democrats- 49, Republicans - 51.
Approximate Net Change: Republicans gain 2 seats.
Key states to watch: AZ, MT, NE, OH, TX
Let's begin by stating the obvious: this is a bad map for Democrats. Control of the Senate depends on them successfully defending numerous states that Trump is expected to carry easily, with very few apparent pick up opportunities. Even in a good year for Democrats, they would probably lose this map. The fact that it is even close is due to the gulf in candidate quality, a consistent feature in down-ballot races throughout the Trump era.
This leaves Democrats in a very precarious position. Currently, they are favoured to win races in OH, NV and AZ, all states where Trump is arguably favoured to win in the Presidential race. On top of this, they are defending seats in the battleground states of WI, MI and PA, albeit in races that they are broadly expected to win. The trouble is, even if they win all of these seats, Democrats still lose the Senate.
Maintaining control of the Senate will ultimately depend on Democrats successfully defending Tester's seat in deep red Montana, or pulling off an upset in equally deep red Texas or Nebraska.
Montana is an interesting race. It's not a state that Democrats are expected to come even vaguely close to competing at the Presidential level. But Tester is an institution, popular in his home state despite being a Democrat, and arguably a much stronger candidate than his opponent. The fact that he trails in the polls is due solely to the (D) next to his name, and while that fact makes the race competitive, it nevertheless makes him a clear underdog. Polls have started to move away from him of late, and accordingly I predict Republicans to take this seat.
Texas is just about in play due to the unpopularity of incumbent Republican Ted Cruz. Cruz has always been a divisive politician, even within his own party. He faces additional pressure in Texas following a number of scandals, most notably where he very publicly fled his home state for Cancun during the natural disasters of 2021, something from which his approval has never recovered. He only won re-election 2018 by a mere 3%, albeit in a blue-wave election year, and Texas has arguably trended left in the six years since. Currently he very narrowly leads in the polls against former professional football player Colin Allred. I still expect Cruz to win here, with Trump's presence on the ballot likely enough to pull him over the finish line, but it's close.
Lastly, I am flagging up the race in Nebraska. An interesting one, considering there isn't even a Democrat on the ballot. This is because of the independent run of Dan Osborn, a popular labor leader from the state. Osborn's surprise campaign has closed the race to within 2% in the polls, a testament to how advantageous it can be to run in a deep red state without the (D) next to your name. This race arguably is a toss up at this point. The only reason I give it to Republicans is because of the paucity of high quality polling in the state, as well as the ambiguity of whether Osborn would actually caucus with the Democrats should he win. Increasingly though, if Democrats keep control of the Senate, it's looking like it may come from this race.
Conclusion
So there it is. It's a close election, and one without close parallel due to the unique events that have occurred during the campaign. Nevertheless, the data presents a tangible, albeit narrow favourite. Ultimately, while the margins are tight, Harris simply has an easier path to 270. But this is far from a done deal. The race could still change in the final days, there could be polling error one way or the other, or independents/undecided voters could break unpredictably for one candidate. Such is the magic of democratic elections, you're never entirely sure which way it is going to end up. This forecast is probably about as accurate a sense of where things are going as can be formed right now, so take it for what it is, and good luck.
Sunday, 1 September 2024
We're back. The transfer window has slammed shut, and with that the die is cast and another season of Premier League action awaits. It's a season chock-full of narrative and drama. Can anyone stand in the way of Manchester City's quest to turn the world's greatest football league into a one-club contest? Can Arne Slot slot into the Jurgen Klopp-shaped hole at Anfield? Will Arsenal finally go one better than oh-so-near and return to the summit of English football? Watch this space.
Premier League 2024/25 Predictions in a nutshell:
Champions: Arsenal
Champions League qualifiers: Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United
Relegated: Leicester, Crystal Palce, Southampton
Golden Boot winner: Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Golden Glove winner: Ederson (Manchester City)
Player to watch: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
New signing to watch: Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal)
Young player to watch: Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United)
First manager to get the sack: Sean Dyche (Everton)
Shock of the season: Arsenal show some bottle and win something?
ARSENAL
Nickname: The Gunners
Ground: Emirates Stadium
Capacity: 60,000
Position last season: 2nd
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Close, but no cigar. While the Gunners have improved considerably in recent seasons with Kroenke's heavy financial investment, it seems there is nothing they can do to get one over title rivals and now four-time consecutive champions Manchester City.
That doesn't mean they won't try, and Kroenke has once again opened his war chest to the tune of £100million, bringing in goalkeeper David Raya on a permanent deal, along with Real Sociedad midfielder Mikel Merino. But it is the signing of Riccardo Calafiori that makes the greatest statement of intent. The Italian fullback had been one of the summer's most sought after transfers, and the fact that he has ended up at the Emirates is certainly something of a coup.
But, as we have seen time and time again, it's not enough just to spend money. You need to spend it well, and put in place the infrastructure to get the most out of your assets. In this regard, Mikel Arteta deserves great credit. He has crafted a very excellent side here, built around captain Martin Ødegaard, with quality in every position. This is football and anything can happen, particularly with the threat of a potential points deduction looming over the Mancunian powerhouse. If there is a time for Arsenal to finally take back the title, it's now.
Key Signing: Riccardo Calafiori
Key Man: Martin Odegaard
Verdict: Title contenders, but can they keep consistent when the pressure is on?
ASTON VILLA
Nickname: The Villans
Ground: Villa Park
Capacity: 42,095
Last season: 4th
Manager: Unai Emery
Last season's surprise top four finish will not be soon forgotten at Villa Park. Unai Emery has defied every expectation to bring the storied Birmingham club back to the upper echelons of English football. But while optimism is at an all time high, caution is warranted.
Key Man: Martin Odegaard
Verdict: Title contenders, but can they keep consistent when the pressure is on?
ASTON VILLA
Nickname: The Villans
Ground: Villa Park
Capacity: 42,095
Last season: 4th
Manager: Unai Emery
Last season's surprise top four finish will not be soon forgotten at Villa Park. Unai Emery has defied every expectation to bring the storied Birmingham club back to the upper echelons of English football. But while optimism is at an all time high, caution is warranted.
A repeat of these successes is not guaranteed, particularly with the added demands of European football. But Villa have been busy this summer, building their squad out to withstand these expected rigors. No fewer than fifteen signings, not all of whom, in fairness, are expected to feature, have joined the club, including a big money move for Everton midfielder Amadou Onana. But it is the signing of Chelsea youngster, and last year's Champions League runner up, Ian Maatsen that promises the greatest reward. It's a shrewd signing that will bring some additional attacking flair.
The main man, of course, is Ollie Watkins. The 28 year old forward, scorer of some 27 goals for Villa last season, begins the season on the back of an impressive summer showing for England. He will be central to everything they do.
Key Signing: Ian Maatsen
Key Man: Ollie Watkins
Verdict: Sometimes you need to take a step backwards to move forward. A top 7 finish will be a good result.
BOURNEMOUTH
Nickname: The Cherries
Ground: Dean Court
Capacity: 11,364
Last season: 12th
Manager: Andoni Iraola
Nickname: The Cherries
Ground: Dean Court
Capacity: 11,364
Last season: 12th
Manager: Andoni Iraola
If we can say one thing, it's that Bournemouth have shown themselves to be no pushover at this level. The south coast club have consolidated their position in the top flight, and appear to be aiming for greater things. But just how much of that is achievable?
The appointment of hotly tipped manager Andoni Iraola has been hailed as something of a coup, and they have backed their man in the transfer market this summer, most notably with the £40million signing of Brazilian forward Evanilson. But at the same time, doubts persist over Iraola's long term position, while the club have been unable to retain a key player in last year's successes, Chelsea youth product Dominic Solanke.
The truth is, Bournemouth will do well to match last season's finish. Their rise in recent years has been impressive, but work is needed to maintain that level. The expectations among the Bournemouth faithful will likely be a realistic ambition for a mid-table finish, which would represent significant progress and stability for the club. The fans will be crucial in rallying behind the team during tough stretches of the season.
Key Signing: Evanilson
Key Man: Lewis Cook
Verdict: Not completely out of the relegation mix, but should survive.
Nickname: The Bees
Ground: Brentford Community Stadium
Capacity: 17,250
Last season: 16th
Manager: Thomas Frank
Has time run out on the great Brentford fairytale? It's been an impressive few seasons in the top flight for the Bees, one which has seen them take great strides off the pitch as well as on, establishing themselves as a football club of note, with a shiny new stadium, an impressive cast of talent, and some eye-catching football.
Last season was all too close, a 16th finish leaving the club only just clear of relegation. There's been a few good pieces of business this summer, most notably in the capture of Liverpool youngsters Sepp van den Berg and Fabio Carvalho. But the overwhelming view among the fans is that not enough has been done to patch up the flaws in last season's squad, and particularly with the ongoing doubts over one key player in particular.
A full season with Ivan Toney will help, if they can keep him (and deal a devastating blow if they can't), but this is a team that needs to be strengthening this squad right now, and instead there looms the threat that they could enter the season a weaker proposition, and a genuine relegation contender.
Key Signing: Fabio Carvalho
Key Man: Ivan Toney
Verdict: In the relegation mix, but with a good chance of survival.
BRIGHTON
Nickname: The Seagulls
Ground: Falmer Stadium
Capacity: 31,800
Last season: 11th
Manager: Fabian Hürzeler
Of all the clubs to rise into the Premier League in recent seasons, Brighton appear to stand out as the one which has achieved the most sustainable success. A very well-run outfit which has turned the coastal club into a recognisable brand and a marketable organisation.
There is no shortage of ambition here, and Brighton have invested some £150million into the squad this summer. True to form, this has been focused on the kind of young, promising talent that has delivered such strong results in years gone by. They have done well by this strategy, both financially and in footballing terms, but at some point they are going to need more mature, developed players if they want to challenge for the next level. This requires either a change in strategy, or to retain their talented youngsters, something which has proved difficult.
At this point, Brighton have clearly established their top flight credentials and it is difficult to see them going back down in the near future. They have performed to a high quality and done so consistently. The trouble is that once you get to this level, the other teams around you are just that good that it makes further progress very difficult.
Key Signing: Yankuba Minteh
Key Man: Kaoru Mitoma
Verdict: Will be looking for a solid top half finish to continue their progress.
Key Man: Kaoru Mitoma
Verdict: Will be looking for a solid top half finish to continue their progress.
CHELSEA
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Stamford Bridge
Capacity: 41,837
Last season: 6th
Manager: Enzo Maresca
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Stamford Bridge
Capacity: 41,837
Last season: 6th
Manager: Enzo Maresca
I could write an entire article about the issues at Chelsea. Suffice it to say, the Clearlake era has been nothing short of disastrous. Billions spent, three years into this project, and we still barely know what this project is supposed to be. To call it a mess is offensive to messes. And just when it was starting to look like progress was being made, Clearlake forces Pochettino out the door, and we start over from scratch once again.
Yet despite all that, there is potential in this team. Much has been written about the club's strategy of signing young, unpolished players, but there is no denying the talent on offer. People forget just how young the likes of Moises Caicedo and Nicolas Jackson still are, despite their prominence in the squad. Levi Colwill can make the odd error, sure, but at just 21 years of age he is still far ahead of most of generation. The club's unwillingness to sign a top level goalkeeper will cost the club points this season, no doubt, but in Filip Jorgensen, they have signed one of the top rated prospects in Europe. If he gets his shot ahead of Sanchez, he could well be a major coup for the club.
Then there is Cole Palmer, the one undeniable success story of the Clearlake era. Palmer was unfancied upon his surprise transfer to Chelsea last summer, but he silenced the naysayers, notching up an astonishing 40 goals and assists in his debut season. Still just 22 years of age, Palmer increasingly looks to be the player around which this Chelsea team will be built, and on the basis of this summer's performances, that day may soon come for the national side as well. The club's scattershot approach to transfers has been messy, and resulted in many more misses than hits, but you only need a few hits like Palmer to craft a top side.
So what can Chelsea realistically achieve this season? Much will depend on how the new manager adapts to top flight football. It seems to be the "in" thing right now for clubs to take a chance on unproven, exciting managers. We will need to wait and see if it pays off here.
Key Signing: Filip Jörgensen
Key Man: Cole Palmer
Verdict: Such has been the air of chaos and inconsistency at this club, I could reasonably believe a finish of anywhere from 4th to 14th. Median result? 7th.
CRYSTAL PALACE
Nickname: Eagles, Glaziers
Ground: Selhurst Park
Capacity: 25,486
Last season: 10th
Manager: Oliver Glasner
CRYSTAL PALACE
Nickname: Eagles, Glaziers
Ground: Selhurst Park
Capacity: 25,486
Last season: 10th
Manager: Oliver Glasner
Oliver Glasner has made a strong start to his career at Selhurst Park, bringing style and some impressive victories to Crystal Palace, who ended last season on a fine run of form. It was enough for Glasner to be linked with the vacant Bayern position over the summer. The Eagles managed to keep him, but now the question is whether they can do the same for their playing staff.
Palace have already lost key player Michael Olise (to Bayern, as it happens), and rumours abound relating to Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi as we enter the final days of the transfer window. The expectation among Palace fans is for the club to build on its position and make a push up into the top half of the table, but much will depend on keeping these top talents at the club.
On the transfer front, the club will be hoping that new arrivals Daichi Kamada (who worked under Glasner at Frankfurt) and Ismaila Sarr can make up for the departure of Olise. I think Palace fans will need to temper their expectations this season.
Key Signing: Daichi Kamada
Key Man: Eberechi Eze
Verdict: Palace could be a relegation risk, this is very much a transition year and expectations should be set accordingly.
EVERTON
Nickname: Toffees
Ground: Goodison Park
Capacity: 40,170
Last season: 15th
Manager: Sean Dyche
In the annals of underperforming Premier League teams, few earn their place more than Everton. Last season looked particularly bleak for the Toffees. A perennially struggling side that couldn't seem to find a consistent plan or manager, and a points deduction on top of that. But Sean Dyche deserves some credit for the work he has done, doing what he has so often done elsewhere in bringing the best out of a rough situation.
Everton ultimately secured safety with just three matches to spare, but the points deduction leaves a somewhat misleading picture. Indeed, without that handicap, Everton would have finished a respectable 12th, considerably above pre-season expectations.
There is every hope, then, that the club may have turned a page and be on the right path forward at last. But as we have seen so many times before, Dyche is more of a bandaid than a rehabilitation programme. He'll keep you out of relegation, but building on that towards something is another matter. Add to that some meagre transfer activity, combined with the loss of key man Amadou Onana, and it is clear that some risk still remains.
Key Signing: Iliman Ndiaye
Key Man: Jordan Pickford
Verdict: Not a relegation favourite, but under greater risk than they would like to believe.
FULHAM
Nickname: The Cottagers
Ground: Craven Cottage
Capacity: 24,500
Last season: 13th
Manager: Marco Silva
Nickname: The Cottagers
Ground: Craven Cottage
Capacity: 24,500
Last season: 13th
Manager: Marco Silva
As Fulham gears up for the 2024/25 Premier League season, the team is looking to build on its recent form and secure a stable position in the league. Under the continued leadership of Marco Silva, Fulham has become familiar with mid-table security and aims to consolidate this status despite experiencing some significant player exits recently.
The summer transfer business has been a mixed bag. Fulham has welcomed back the prodigal son Ryan Sessegnon, alongside acquiring Emile Smith Rowe and Jorge Cuenca, promising to add youth and dynamism to the squad. However, the departure of key players like Joao Palhinha and Bobby Decordova-Reid means the team will need to adjust quickly to maintain their competitive edge.
Fulham fans remain optimistic about the club’s direction under Silva's management. The community around Craven Cottage is hopeful that the strategic signings and tactical stability can at least maintain the present level, with a comfortable mid-table finish.
Key Signing: Emile Smith Rowe
Key Man: Bernd Leno
Verdict: Should be safe, and achieve a similar mid-table finish to last season.
IPSWICH
Nickname: Tractor Boys
Ground: Portman Road
Capacity: 30,014
Last season: Promoted (Runner up)
Manager: Kieran McKenna
Ground: Portman Road
Capacity: 30,014
Last season: Promoted (Runner up)
Manager: Kieran McKenna
Ipswich Town returns to the Premier League for the 2024/25 season after a 22-year absence, fueled by back-to-back promotions that saw them rise from League One to the top flight in just two seasons. As they prepare for their comeback season at the highest level of English football, the anticipation and excitement among the fans and within the club are palpable.
Kieran McKenna finds himself as one of the hot properties in football management, having been linked to both Chelsea and Manchester United this past summer. It is believe that, had United parted ways with Erik ten Hag, McKenna would have been the replacement. It may well be that this remains his next destination, but for now he will be looking to use this opportunity, his first in top flight football, to further develop his reputation and acumen.
There's no denying the magnitude of the challenge that awaits. But this is a tough side, and they have strengthened well over the summer. The permanent transfer of last season's loan signing Omari Hutchinson is a brilliant move, and I think Hutchinson could well surprise a lot of people this season. Meanwhile, the arrival of veteran midfielder Kalvin Phillips on loan will provide some essential steel and a winning mentality.
Key Signing: Omari Hutchinson
Key Man: Omari Hutchinson
Verdict: A tough battle for survival awaits.
LEICESTER CITY
Nickname: The Foxes
Ground: King Power Stadium
Capacity: 32,312
Last season: Promoted (Champions)
Manager: Steve Cooper
Ground: King Power Stadium
Capacity: 32,312
Last season: Promoted (Champions)
Manager: Steve Cooper
Back in the top flight for the Foxes, with survival first and foremost on their minds. Leicester still fancy themselves to be a "big club" (it was only a few years ago that they won the Premier League, after all) and see the top flight as their natural home, but the challenge that lies ahead is a daunting one.
Firstly, Leicester will have the added complexity of adapting to a new era, with last season's Championship winning Manager Enzo Maresca having left to join Chelsea over the summer. The replacement is Steve Cooper, a manager who most recently performed the feat of survival with an unfancied Nottingham Forest side. But Cooper is no Maresca. This will be a very different brand of football, and a period of adaptation is required.
This is far from a bad side. Even with his ageing years, Jamie Vardy is still a potent threat, while Harry Winks and Wilfred Ndidi offer much in the midfield. The permanent signing of Abdul Fatawu, on loan with the club last season, could also prove a shrewd move.
The big elephant in the room is Leicester's upcoming PSR verdict, which leaves the threat of a potential points deduction looming over them. Without this, I would fancy this team for survival, but if they do get hit with a points deduction... well it's an uphill battle ahead.
Key Signing: Abdul Fatawu
Key Man: Harry Winks
Verdict: Survival may depend on the impending PSR verdict.
LIVERPOOL
Nickname: Reds
Ground: Anfield
Capacity: 54,074
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Arne Slot
Ground: Anfield
Capacity: 54,074
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Arne Slot
The end of an era. Jurgen Klopp will be revered on Merseyside as the man who brought the Premier League title back to Anfield. His has been a singularly successful period of stewardship, and he leaves an unenviable absence in his wake. The man tasked with taking over is Arne Slot, an Eredivisie champion at Feyenoord.
While Arne will be looking to make his mark on Liverpool, activity over the summer has been relatively minimal. Only two signings at the time of writing: Italian hotshot Federico Chiesa, formerly of Juventus and son of the famed Enrico Chiesa, and Giorgi Mamardashvili, a very hotly tipped young goalkeeper who recently impressed at the Euros. Alisson is still the man in goal, but the signing of Mamardashvili suggests they are starting to consider the future.
Otherwise, this is much the same Liverpool side you know and love. They will compete once again, but a title challenge amid an already difficult transition period may be too much to expect.
Key Signing: Federico Chiesa
Key Man: Mo Salah
Verdict: Will expect a top four finish.
Key Man: Mo Salah
Verdict: Will expect a top four finish.
MANCHESTER CITY
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Etihad Stadium
Capacity: 55,017
Last season: Champions
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Etihad Stadium
Capacity: 55,017
Last season: Champions
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Champions and, arguably, favourites to win it again. Manchester City's squad is one of the world's strongest, has depth for miles, and probably the single best footballer on the planet in Erling Haaland.
Relatively minimal transfer activity this summer. İlkay Gündoğan has re-joined from Barcelona, presumably for depth, while exciting Brazilian youngster Savinho joins from Troyes. Not much has changed, and frankly not much needed to.
This is an excellent team, but at some point surely their winning streak has to come to an end? The core off Pep's squad is, after all, ageing, and one has to wonder if the hunger for victory remains for a side that has already won it all. They sit, surrounded by rivals desperate to claim that title. Will their quality shine through once again?
Key Signing: Savinho
Key Man: Erling Haaland
Verdict: A major title favourite.
MANCHESTER UNITED
Nickname: Red Devils
Ground: Old Trafford
Capacity: 74,879
Last season: 8th
Manager: Erik ten Hag
How quickly things can change. A few months ago, Erik ten Hag's job hung in the balance, with many expecting him to leave at the end of last season. But new owner Jim Ratcliffe is clearly a man with patience, and saw fit to offer a reprieve. A new wave of optimism now seems to be overtaking the club, but is this really the start of a new era, or just another false dawn?
I said last season that United needed to target a top four finish, and a minimum. Suffice it to say, an 8th place finish fell far short of expectations. I still contend that, on paper, this is a good side that should be at least challenging for European contention.
Reinforcements have arrived, most notably in the defence with the signings of Leny Yoro and Matthijs de Ligt, a former Erik ten Hag scion previously considered one of the hottest talents in world football. Manuel Ugarte also joins from PSG as a player with some hype about him. The success of the season may hinge on the performances of both established stars and new signings. Rashford's continued form in attack, combined with the leadership of Fernandes.
Key Signing: Matthijs de Ligt
Key Man: Bruno Fernandes
Verdict: Will be hoping to improve upon last season's finish and mount a real campaign for top four.
Key Signing: Lewis Hall
Key Man: Joelinton
Verdict: The potential is there, but perhaps not enough about them to push for more than top 6.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Nickname: The Reds
Ground: City Ground
Capacity: 30,445
Last season: 17th
Manager: Nuno Espírito Santo
Key Man: Bruno Fernandes
Verdict: Will be hoping to improve upon last season's finish and mount a real campaign for top four.
NEWCASTLE
Nickname: The Magpies, Toon
Ground: St James' Park
Capacity: 52,305
Last season: 7th
Manager: Eddie Howe
Nickname: The Magpies, Toon
Ground: St James' Park
Capacity: 52,305
Last season: 7th
Manager: Eddie Howe
One can't help but feel mixed emotions for Newcastle. The hype and promise that accompanied their takeover a few years ago seems to have largely fizzled. Not that they find themselves in a bad way at all, but nor do they look to be making the kind of moves that would really see them compete for the top prizes, which had, after all, been the ambition.
That ambition still remains, but it won't help matters that rumours continue to swirl over the future of manager Eddie Howe, currently linked with the England job. The club nevertheless are hoping to be well prepared for whatever the future holds, with a concerted focus this summer on young talent. Chelsea academy product Lewis Hall makes his loan move permanent, while Sheffield United's promising forward William Osula also joins. Hall in particular is a genuine prospect, and looks every bit a future international starter for club and country.
The squad is a strong one, with much to offer. Kieran Trippier can turn a game with his setpieces, while Alexsander Isak has proven himself a force in attack. But the heart of this team beats around Joelinton, re-invented as a midfield general.
Key Signing: Lewis Hall
Key Man: Joelinton
Verdict: The potential is there, but perhaps not enough about them to push for more than top 6.
Nickname: The Reds
Ground: City Ground
Capacity: 30,445
Last season: 17th
Manager: Nuno Espírito Santo
If last season's near miss was a warning, it's been heeded by The Reds' owners, with no fewer than 9 players signed this summer, and two more in on loan. But despite the close call, there's a lot to like about this Forest side.
Morgan Gibbs-White has been retained, an energetic and intelligent midfielder, while there are hints that former Chelsea academy golden boy Callum Hudson-Odoi may be starting to hit his potential. Jota Silva is a promising signing, his skills and energy often drawing comparisons with Jack Grealish, while the experience and set pieces of loan signing James Ward-Prowse will pay dividends.
With Nuno Espirito Santo at the helm, Nottingham Forest's 2024/25 season is about building stability and showing marked improvement from the nail-biting finish of the last campaign. If the new signings gel quickly and the squad adapts to Santo’s tactical plans, Forest could well achieve survival, but they face a difficult challenge.
Key Signing: Jota Silva
Key Man: Morgan Gibbs-White
Verdict: At risk for relegation.
Key Man: Morgan Gibbs-White
Verdict: At risk for relegation.
SOUTHAMPTON
Nickname: The Saints
Ground: St Mary's Stadium
Capacity: 32,384
Last season: Promoted (Playoff)
Manager: Russell Martin
Nickname: The Saints
Ground: St Mary's Stadium
Capacity: 32,384
Last season: Promoted (Playoff)
Manager: Russell Martin
I mean... someone has to be relegated, right? With no disrespect to Southampton, on paper they would be considered one of the league's weaker sides. To their credit, they clearly acknowledge this, signing a whopping 18 players, not all of whom presumably will feature in the first team squad.
These new faces vary from the veteran goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, to promising forward Cameron Archer, and the talented anchor Flynn Downes, who shone on loan last year. Equally intriguing will be to see how the hotly tipped young defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis handles his first season of top flight football.
This is football, and anything can happen. But this Southampton team look likely to struggle.
Key Signing: Flynn Downes
Key Man: Kyle Walker-Peters
Verdict: Will be in and around the relegation battle.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Nickname: Spurs
Ground: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Capacity: 62,850
Last season: 5th
Manager: Ange Postecoglou
Ground: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Capacity: 62,850
Last season: 5th
Manager: Ange Postecoglou
Is this the year Tottenham come good? It's almost a meme at this point, but after coming so close to a top four finish last season, and with the good vibes still following Ange Postecoglou and his men, the Spurs faithful have to feel that they have as good a chance as anyone.
Postecoglou's approach is characterized by intense, high-stakes football—a style that initially proved highly effective but seemed to tax the squad as the season progressed. This season, the focus will be on achieving a better balance that maintains their aggressive play while managing player stamina and performance over the long haul.
Son is absolutely still the key man in this post Harry Kane era, but there are some uncharacteristically exciting new signings to help bolster that front line. Former Chelsea academy starlet Dominic Solanke signs on the back of a stellar season with Bournemouth, hoping that this could finally be his moment to hit the heights so often hinted at. He arrives alongside the talented youngsters Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall. It's a promising time for Tottenham, but one still feels like more is required if they are ever going to challenge the big dogs in this league.
Key Signing: Dominic Solanke
Key Man: Son Heung-Min
Verdict: A top four contender.
Key Man: Son Heung-Min
Verdict: A top four contender.
WEST HAM UNITED
Nickname: The Hammers
Ground: London Stadium
Capacity: 62,500
Last season: 9th
Manager: Julen Lopetegui
Deciding to move on from David Moyes can't have been easy for the Hammers. After all, Moyes has turned the fortunes of this club around in recent years, re-establishing them as a top flight side of merit. Under Lopetegui, West Ham is expected to continue refining a style that balances solid defensive organization with creative attacking play. The manager’s tactical proficiency will be crucial as the team looks to improve on their previous mid-table finish and push for European qualification spots.
Nickname: The Hammers
Ground: London Stadium
Capacity: 62,500
Last season: 9th
Manager: Julen Lopetegui
Deciding to move on from David Moyes can't have been easy for the Hammers. After all, Moyes has turned the fortunes of this club around in recent years, re-establishing them as a top flight side of merit. Under Lopetegui, West Ham is expected to continue refining a style that balances solid defensive organization with creative attacking play. The manager’s tactical proficiency will be crucial as the team looks to improve on their previous mid-table finish and push for European qualification spots.
The key to this side is in the midfield. Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paquetá and Tomáš Souček make for a very formidable lineup, while up front Jarrod Bowen has firmly established himself as a top talent and one of the key players to keep an eye on this season. While they've spent big money on the likes of Luis Guilherme and Max Kilman, it's the signing of Aaron Wan-Bissaka that could prove the most adroit, adding experience and quality to that right flank.
A primary challenge for West Ham will be consistency. The team has shown potential in flashes but will need to perform more consistently against both top-tier and similarly ranked teams. However, the refreshed squad provides an opportunity to reset expectations and aim higher, with a particular focus on securing more wins at home at the London Stadium, which could prove pivotal in climbing the table.
Key Signing: Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Key Man: Jarrod Bowen
Verdict: Top half finish, but not threatening the clubs further up the table.
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Nickname: Wolves
Ground: Molineux Stadium
Capacity: 32,050
Last season: 14th
Manager: Gary O'Neil
Key Man: Jarrod Bowen
Verdict: Top half finish, but not threatening the clubs further up the table.
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Nickname: Wolves
Ground: Molineux Stadium
Capacity: 32,050
Last season: 14th
Manager: Gary O'Neil
Last, but not least, Wolves. For a number of years, Wolves were seen as one of the next big things in English football. With deep pockets, some shrewd business, and hugely ambitious owners, Wolves were shaping up to be a very fine squad with the potential of pushing on into Europe. That era seems to have passed now, with the club slumping in the last few seasons to lower mid table.
I think this club has established itself enough that people are largely overlooking the potential difficulties they face this season. This summer has seen both the captain and the best player leave the squad, and a chaotic, unfocused transfer window offers little to suggest that they will be adequately replaced.
The initial weeks are anticipated to be crucial for Wolverhampton Wanderers. They face a challenging opener at Arsenal this Saturday, followed by matches against Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Manchester City in five of their next seven games. By November, the question remains: will they be well-tempered by their challenges, or overwhelmed?
Key Signing: Rodrigo Gomes
Key Man: Hwang Hee-chan
Verdict: Without quality reinforcements will struggle, and perhaps risk relegation.
Predicted table:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Aston Villa
7. Chelsea
8. Newcastle United
9. West Ham United
10. Brighton
11. Fulham
12. Everton
13. Bournemouth
14. Brentford
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Aston Villa
7. Chelsea
8. Newcastle United
9. West Ham United
10. Brighton
11. Fulham
12. Everton
13. Bournemouth
14. Brentford
15. Nottingham Forest
16. Wolverhampton Wanderers
16. Wolverhampton Wanderers
17. Ipswich
18. Leicester City
19. Crystal Palace
20. Southampton
18. Leicester City
19. Crystal Palace
20. Southampton
Friday, 26 July 2024
Are you not entertained? There is rarely a dull moment in American politics, and this week delivered a particularly historic curveball, as incumbent President Joe Biden withdrew his re-election bid, throwing his endorsement behind Vice President Kamala Harris. How did this happen? Why? What does it mean for the upcoming election? Let's talk about it.
When this blog last spoke about the election in our way too early preview back in March, we set the baseline for what to expect from the 2024 election. As a relatively legislatively accomplished President, absent of major scandal, and presiding over a roaring economy, Joe Biden was in a strong position for re-election. History tells us that a President in his position is an overwhelming favourite for re-election.
At the time, I wrote that the number one risk to Biden's re-election bid, the thing that could potentially undermine all the advantages he held as an incumbent of a successful administration, was his age and health. In the end, that ended up being precisely what came to pass.
It became very clear in that ill-fated first Presidential debate that Biden's age was starting to catch up with him, and that his decline had clearly been worse than was publicly known. But to be clear, it was not the flubs, the mixed up names and other slips of the tongue that raised concern - his similarly aged opponent has more than his fair share of these - but the physical frailty and the lack of attention. This election is not just about who we want to be President in January, it's about who we want to be President in four years, and it became all too clear that Joe Biden does not have another four years of this highly demanding job within him.
So, like George Washington before him, Joe Biden did what was in the best interest of the country, and stepped aside, endorsing his Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. This can't have been an easy decision. Few in power choose willingly to part with it when they have the choice, and indeed it is hard to imagine his opponent ever making a similar choice in the interest of serving his country.
The primary driver behind this decision will have been the upcoming election, and the increasing doubts as to whether Joe Biden would be able to beat Donald Trump. Now to be clear, the general consensus had been grossly underestimating the chances that Biden could still win this election. The way pundits spoke of the race, you would think Biden was down 10 points, when in reality he was down maybe 2 points, some of which was likely to be a temporary post-debate dip, and Trump riding a bump from the Republican national convention. Polls were still showing this as a very competitive race, and any suggestion that it was well and truly out of Biden's reach is more "vibes" based than anything borne in the data.
But at the end of the day, a decision needed to be made quickly with the Democratic National Convention approaching. I suspect that, ultimately, it was not so much the current polling deficit that sealed the decision, so much as the potential for further age-related setbacks further down the line. It was a high risk and a risk that did not need to be taken.
The end result is that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee in November, with the opportunity to make history as the first woman to be elected President of the United States.
What are Kamala's chances in this election? The potential upside is clear. Joe Biden had a great number of advantages behind his bid, and Donald Trump a great number of detriments. The fact that Biden was polling competitively with Trump in spite of his age-related issues makes that clear. One would expect that another Democrat without this major weakness, but still able to take advantage of her party's strengths, would poll better. Add to this the fact that Kamala was polling at a similar level to Biden, despite a lower name recognition - and thus, more room to grow - and it would seem that Kamala comes into this race with a ceiling that is potentially far higher than Biden's.
Indeed Kamala's campaign is off to a near perfect start. Announcing the switch at the close of the RNC was a master stroke, effectively halting any momentum Trump may have received from his party's headline event. Not to mention, it comes at a time when Republicans are more or less locked in to their ticket, with less room to react to the change in circumstances.
In the first 24 hours, Kamala raised a record breaking $86million. At the time of writing, she has raised more than $200million this week, a new one week record. In the polls, Harris started level with Biden, a few points below Trump. But after just a few days, most polls are showing her level or ahead. Reuters/Ipsos has her 4pts ahead of Trump nationally. New York Times, a pollster that until now has been an outlier in showing strong Trump numbers, swung from +6 Trump to a tie. Kamala's net favourability is surging and has overtaken Trump. If this trend continues (a big "if", mind), Kamala is likely to lead in the polls soon.
The mood in the campaign has changed completely. Suddenly, it's the Trump campaign on defence, looking bewildered and unsure of how to proceed. Their attacks this week have flailed between the baffling (Kamala laughs too much) to the explicitly racist and sexist. Already there are signs that Donald Trump is looking for excuses to back out of the remaining scheduled debates. The momentum is very much with Kamala Harris, and the Trump campaign is running scared.
None of this is helped by Trump's pick for Vice President. Even before Biden dropped out, JD Vance seemed a terrible decision. Another Putinist Republican who exists solely to echo Trump's slogans and does little to expand the appeal of the ticket. I mean, Nikki Haley was right there and back on board. Even Burgum or Tim Scott would have been something. Vance is an absolutely baffling pick. Unpopular, unappealing, poorly vetted (if the stories coming out this week are any indication), and now it's too late for them to do anything about it - or very, very difficult and painful to do so anyway.
It's still early days. Who knows if Kamala's momentum continues, or if it lasts. Right now it's looking like there's more upside ahead than not. Kamala can expect additional momentum from her upcoming VP announcement and the Democratic National Convention, not to mention Trump's potential exposure in his upcoming criminal procedures. It's still entirely likely that Trump gets sentenced for his fraud convictions before the election, after all.
There will be a lot more to say and write about this in the coming days. It remains to be seen how, exactly the electoral math will change with these new candidates. In general, Harris' numbers are up pretty much across the board, but so far the most notable difference appears to be in Georgia, with polls now showing a tied race in a state that was previously considered to be a long shot for Biden.
It is hard to see this as anything other than a colossal misstep for Republicans. They were hammering Biden hard to drop out of the race, but clearly never countenanced the idea that he may actually do so. Now, much like the dog who caught the car, they got what they wanted and have no idea what to do with it. That error in strategy may end up costing them the election.
Sunday, 19 May 2024
Another Premier League campaign in the history books and it was... basically what we expected. Manchester City did claim a record breaking fourth consecutive title, but were unexpectedly pressed until the last day by an impressive Arsenal title charge. At the foot of the table, no mercy for the newcomers, as all three newly promoted clubs received their marching orders, a stark reminder of the massive step up that the Premier League requires.
Outside of the title race, Unai Emery continues to impress, improving upon Aston Villa's already impressive 7th place the previous year with a remarkable top four finish that will see the Birmingham club return to the Champions League for the first time since 1983. Newcastle failed to live up to their pre-season hype, with a solid season that nevertheless did not deliver the kind of progress their wealthy owners would have hoped - the disastrous £60million signing of Sandro Tonali, who would go on to miss the entire season following a ban for gambling, certainly didn't help.
As for the Premier League team of the season, predictably good showing from Manchester City and Arsenal. Jordan Pickford gets my nod for best goalkeeper. While Raya may have slightly better statistics, he also has a far better defence. The fact that Pickford even comes close is, for me, the more impressive accomplishment. Given Aston Villa's remarkable season, it was a very difficult decision not to include Ollie Watkins, but at the end of the day Erling Haaland is still the league's top scorer by some distance. It's remarkable that a 27 goal season is being viewed by some pundits as a disappointment!
Now let's get to some awards and the team of the season:
The Ephemeric Premier League Awards 2024:
Winners: Manchester City
Relegated: Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United
Player of the Year: Phil Foden (Manchester City)
U-21 Player of the Year: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
Best Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Top Scorer: Erling Haaland (Manchester City) (27)
Most Assists: Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) (13)
Manager of the Year: Unai Emery (Aston Villa)
Best signing of the season: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
Worst signing of the season: Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United)
The Ephemeric Premier League Team of the Season 2024:
So there we have it, another season of Premier League football gone by. We'll see you again next season!
Thursday, 2 May 2024
Created by Graham Wagner, Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Jonathan Nolan
Network Amazon
Starring Ella Purnell, Aaron Moten, Walton Goggins
Genre Science Fiction, Satire
Running Time 45-74 minutes
Fans of geeky TV series are eating well. Hot on the heels of Netflix's really-pretty-good 3 Body Problem adaptation last month, comes Amazon with an even less likely adaptation of the celebrated Fallout series of videogames.
So first of all, what is Fallout? In terms of its setting, Fallout takes inspiration from midcentury imaginings of the "world of tomorrow". Thinly veiled Cold War propaganda about the coming atomic age and how a combination of nuclear power and capitalism would bring us all flying cars, robot butlers and commuting to outer space. Fallout imagines a world where the future came to pass exactly as those 1950s propaganda films predicted: a world of all-American nuclear families, where everyone looks, dresses and talks like the 1950s, living in Googie houses and surrounded by sci-fi tech rendered with a retro-futuristic "atom-punk" aesthetic. But with that future came the darker side of atomic power, nuclear war.
So Fallout is a satire of the politics and consumerism of the era. A cautionary tale against rampant jingoism and unregulated greed. Set in the nuclear wasteland of that obliterated world of marvels, each game in the series typically involves a series of factions and characters fighting over what remains, each with their own comically zealous ideology.
Amazon's new TV adaptation adheres very closely to both the tone and moralism of the source material. This is a deeply silly world, with colourful characters that range from hopelessly naive to comically selfish, but always with a grain of truth to their motivations. It is also a very violent world, as the cold hard reality of the horrors of war continually crash against the blinkered optimism of its premise. This violence is over-the-top and bloody, just as fans of the games will expect. TV fans can imagine something like The Boys to get a sense of its severity.
Without spoiling too much of the story, Fallout follows three main protagonists. The first is Lucy, a young woman who has grown up in a vault, constructed pre-war to shelter survivors until enough time had passed to allow them to reclaim the surface. This is a classic Fallout trope that mirrors the opening of most of the games. Starting off in a vault, with characters completely alien to the shenanigans happening on the surface, is a great way to introduce newcomers to the setting, allowing both the character and viewers to discover this world at the same time.
The second is The Ghoul, a pre-war actor heavily irradiated by an atomic blast in the war, rendered horrifically disfigured, yet functionally ageless by his mutations. Scarred by this post-war world, and dark secrets in his past, The Ghoul serves as a more experienced window into the setting, cynical and jaded, his sense of morality long-since eroded.
Possibly most interesting is the third protagonist, Maximus. Maximus is a squire in training with the Brotherhood of Steel, a faction modeled on the old medieval Orders of Knighthood. Their objective is, essentially, to seize and hoard all modern technology from the wasteland, in order to prevent humanity from using it again to destroy itself. The Brotherhood has always been one of the more fascinatingly grey factions in this world, torn between the often cruel fanaticism of their ideology and a de facto role as protectors of the wasteland denizens. Fittingly, Maximus is one of the more enigmatic characters in the franchise. Often driven by acts of nobility and a sense of wanting to "do good", but more often driven by his ego, ambition and desire for self-preservation.
There is so much about this adaptation that is on point. Amazon have nailed the look and feel of this world, from the visual aesthetics, to its music. The set and prop design is incredible, imagining all kinds of whacky retro-futuristic technology that has never existed, but looks functional.
The writing is also very strong, capturing the satirical tone of the source material, the humour, homages to pop culture and pulp fiction. The story is a little derivative, it has to be said. The whole "vault dweller leaving the vault to find a family member" has been done at least a few times already in Fallout. For the most part though, the story is fine. If the story could be a little more original, though, the character stories are thoroughly excellent. The main protagonists all have fascinating arcs with plenty of tantalising details left to be explored in future seasons. The secondary characters, too, are great, and I was surprised by how engaged I found myself by some of these B-plotlines.
There are some moments where the dialogue can fall flat. The show is always trying to be so subversive and irreverent that sometimes can lead to exchanges that are more cringe than satirical absurdity. A particular scene between Maximus and Lucy talking about the mechanics of sex comes to mind.
Ultimately, any quibbles I have with this series are minor. Fallout stands as a rare example of something that is, at the same time, a great adaptation and also a work of high quality in its own right. The series fits perfectly into the world that already existed, but also stands on its own and expands that world.
Videogame adaptations have historically had a bad reputation attached, although this seems to be changing in recent years. Both Sonic and Mario have had well-received big screen outings, and then The Last of Us came along and became one of the biggest and most critically acclaimed television hits of 2023. Fallout seems to have followed that trend. It is easily one of the best videogame adaptations yet created, one that looks set to become both a critical and commercial hit. But where Last of Us was a direct adaptation of the story in that game, Fallout is an entirely original tale, one that can be taken in any number of directions. I can't wait to see what comes next.
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