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james debate

Sunday, 29 December 2024

debbie debbies end of year awards 2024 best films music

The time has come once again—bubbly is flowing, salad forks are perfectly chilled, and the stage is set for an evening of indulgent revelry. Dust off your finest evening wear, polish those dancing shoes, and prepare for a night to remember. Welcome to the Debbie Awards, the grand finale of the year that honors the highs, the lows, and the truly unforgettable moments of the past twelve months.

The year 2024 has been marked by global advancements and challenges across multiple fronts. Technology continues to reshape daily life, with artificial intelligence and renewable energy driving innovation and sustainability efforts. While challenges abound, we are generally all living longer, healthier lives on a planet full of wonders, and I remain optimistic for the future. Culturally, 2024 was no slouch. Human creativity knows no bounds, from groundbreaking films and literature to thought-provoking art and music. Amidst both triumphs and uncertainties, 2024 reflects humanity's resilience and its quest for progress in an interconnected era.

Without further ado, let the curtain fall upon 2024 as we begin our definitive review of the past 12 months:



2024 Debbie Awards

Cinema & TV

1. The Debbie for TV Show of the Year 
Winner: Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Runner Up: Fargo (FX)

best tv show 2024 slow horses apple







At a time when there exists more numerous premium streaming networks than hours in the day, it takes something special to stand out. In 2024, one TV series more than any other seems to be sweeping critical acclaim from all corners, and that's Slow Horses. An adaptation of the Slough House series of novels by Mick Herron. Led by the sharp-tongued and unkempt Jackson Lamb (played brilliantly by Gary Oldman), the “Slow Horses” uncover conspiracies and threats that their more polished counterparts in MI5 headquarters often overlook. Blending razor-sharp dialogue, thrilling twists, and moments of surprisingly deep humanity, the show masterfully explores themes of loyalty. It's like the not-ready-for-primetime-players version of Le Carré, in a very good way.

Our runner up prize goes to the latest season of Noah Hawley's crime anthology series Fargo. As a series, Fargo has been very much more hit than miss, and this latest season bites back with perhaps its finest since the first. Anchored by a ferocious Juno Temple and a scenery-chewing Jon Hamm, Fargo season 5 makes for indelible television, blending dark humour, intricate storytelling and compelling performances.


2. The Debbie for New TV Show of the Year 
Winner: Fallout (Amazon)
Runner Up: Masters of the Air (AppleTV+)

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In another very competitive year for new TV series, this prize really could have gone to a good four or five different contenders. But ultimately, there can be only one winner. In 2024, the big prize goes to Amazon's brilliant adaptation of Fallout. Irreverent, satirical, and wildly creative. Fallout manages to capture the unique atom-punk style and idiosyncrasies of its post-apocalyptic source material far better than one might have expected, resulting in arguably the finest game-to-TV transition to date.

Runner up goes to Masters of the Air, Apple's epic World War II series based on the novel of the same name by Donald L. Miller. This show follows the lives of the airmen, depicting their bravery, struggles, and the devastating consequences of aerial warfare. Sumptuously produced and with a glittering all-star cast, this high-calibre drama is television of the utmost quality. 


3. The Debbie for Film of the Year 
Winner: Saturday Night
Runner Up: Dune: Part Two

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If I'm being honest, 2024 was not exactly a glowing year in film. But a particular highlight was Saturday Night, the latest film from Jason Reitman, director of Juno, Up in the Air, and the latest Ghostbusters films. This is essentially a fly on the wall dramatisation of the production behind legendary comedy sketch show Saturday Night Live, taking place 90 minutes before the taping of the first ever episode. Frenetic and energetically paced, with sharp dialogue. It's more stream-of-consciousness than any kind of deeper narrative, but the production is superb and very effectively captures this moment in history. 

Coming in second this year is the sequel to Denis Villeneuve's excellent Dune remake. Epic sci-fi at its finest, brought to life with depth and incredible visuals. Part Two leans more into the character relationships and sets up their arcs as we move into the conclusion of this trilogy. Really, the only reason this isn't top is because it's an incomplete story, more focused on setting up the next film. It is superb filmmaking, however, a must watch for fans of the source material, or sci-fi in general.


4. The Debbie for Variety Show Host of the Year 
Winner: Jon Stewart

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Say what you will about 2024, but this was the year that gave us Jon Stewart back on our TV screens. The legendary comedian/TV show host ended his original run on The Daily Show almost a decade ago. During that time he has delved into various creative endeavours, from production to film directing, but none has really landed with the expected impact. His brief stint on Apple showed promise, until he pissed off the wrong investors and got canned. But now he is back where he belongs, part-time at least, and it's refreshing to see his brand of no-holds-barred anti-bullshit once more. Long may it continue.


5. The Debbie for Rising Star of the Year 
Winner: Leo Woodall

leo woodall breakthrough star of the year 2024







You may recognise him from the second season of The White Lotus, Leo Woodall is on the verge of big things. The British actor may have began his career in humble fashion, guest appearances on the likes of Holby City, but these next two years could see him become one of the biggest rising stars in the industry. 2025 will see him take a starring role in the new Bridget Jones film, as well as the lead in the newest Ridley Scott TV series, Prime Target. Add to that some critic-pleasingly prestigious (read: awards-bait) projects such as James Vanderbilt's upcoming Nuremberg, and it really does seem like Woodall is on the precipice. If you didn't know his name until now, you probably will soon.


6. The Debbie for Web-Show of the Year 
Winner: Gaming Historian

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The Gaming Historian is not a new content producer. Norman Caruso's ongoing YouTube series has been documenting the history of gaming's greatest icons, consoles, and the major players of the industry, for years. But recent years have increasingly seen transition from YouTube-friendly short-form content into genuinely substantive documentaries. This year's output has included a forty-minute episode on the history of the first videogame cartridge ever created, and an hour-and-a-half film on the development of classic title The Oregon Trail. In a world where content is increasingly ephemeral, borrowed instead of owned, this type of work is absolutely valuable, and the quality of that work is hugely impressive.

Music, Art & Theatre

7. The Debbie for Theatrical Production of the Year 
Winner: Stranger Things: The First Shadow (Phoenix Theatre)
Runner Up: The Hills of California (Harold Pinter Theatre)

stranger things first shadow prequel netflix best theatre 2024







Amid the overwhelming availability of high quality theatre in London, my choice for the year's best production may raise a few eyebrows. But those who have seen it will know that it is a worthy winner indeed. Stranger Things: The First Shadow is a prequel to the hit Netflix series, but this stage production stands on its own as more than just a treat for longtime fans. Brought to life by the multi-award winning production team of Stephen Daldry and Jack Thorne, First Shadow has serious stage chops behind it. Thrilling for fans old and new, with innovative stagecraft and live visual effects that have to be seen to be believed, the work they have produced is sublime theatre of the highest quality.

Despite many worthy contenders for second place, this year's next pick goes to Sam Mendes' latest, The Hills of California. Penned by highly acclaimed scribe Jez Butterworth, The Hills of California is a compelling family drama that oscillates between the 1950s and 1970s in Blackpool, England. The narrative centers on the Webb sisters, whose mother, Veronica, portrayed by Laura Donnelly, is resolute in molding them into a musical act akin to the Andrews Sisters. The play delves into themes of ambition, familial bonds, and the repercussions of a domineering matriarch, with an unforgettable stinger that won't soon be forgotten.


8. The Debbie for Album of the Year 
Winner: Only God Was Above Us - Vampire Weekend
Runners Up: Gangbusters Melody Club - Caravan Palace, Mahashmashana - Father John Misty

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It would be easy for a commercially successful and widely known band like Vampire Weekend to just turn out another indie rock album, net a few chart hits and call it a day. But part of the band's appeal has always been their willingness to experiment, to blend radio-friendly musicianship with more avant garde compositions and make something with their own unmistakable mark of identity. Only God Was Above Us marks a culmination of their career to date, thematically hearkening back to their New York roots in a way that blends nostalgia and social commentary with more innovative genre mashups that draw on everything from the baroque stylings of Classical to the chamber pop of Pravda, and even more electronic drum and bass influences. The result is an album that manages to defy easy classification, while still providing an array of memorable tunes. 

First runner up place goes to electro-swing giants Caravan Palace, whose latest album, Gangbusters Melody Club. Since their emergence in the late 2000s, the Parisian group has become the great mainstream success story of the genre, combining their jazz and swing influences with a modern club-infused style that manages to feel both fresh and retro at the same time. If their other recent albums had been trending into more pop-focused areas, this latest work comes back to jazz in a big way, and the result is a silky smooth production that runs the gamut from MAD's big band swing, to the infectiously upbeat Raccoons. I defy anyone to listen to Mirrors without dancing a little.

And in third place, a return to form for Father John Misty. Another artist who's not afraid to mix things up a bit, his last album saw a detour into big-band style swing. New album Mahashmashana marks a return to his indie rock roots, best typified by title track Mahashmashana, as well as the deliciously gritty rock number She Cleans Up. But there's evolution here too, and the highlight of the album is undoubtedly the 8 minute odyssey that blends all of Father John's various influences, rock, disco, jazz, I Guess Time Just Makes Fools of Us All.


9. The Debbie for Debut Album of the Year 
Winner: The Mess We Seem to Make - Crawlers
Runner Up: The Future is Our Way Out - Brigitte Calls Me Baby

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The prize for best debut album is always a tricky one, not least because of artists' increasingly unorthodox models for content delivery. Nowadays artists often have several EPs and singles out before anything that can be considered a true LP, sometimes even years earlier. This is the case with Crawlers, a band that has been kicking around in this blog's previews for a while now, but who finally released a full debut LP in 2024, The Mess We Seem to Make. It did not disappoint, receiving critical acclaim for its vibrancy and modern grunge influences. Lead single Come Over Again is still a great track, even though it actually released some three years ago, Messiah another winning number. This band has a lot of promise. 

A number of close contenders for runner up, but ultimately I went for The Future is Our Way Out, the debut album from Chicago-based pop-rock band Brigitte Calls Me Baby. A highly polished debut that seamlessly blends a myriad of influences, sometimes to a fault. This debut drips with solid gold nostalgia, from the mid-century rock-infused bop of Impressively Average, to more Roy Orbison-flavoured crooning with Eddie My Love. It's all delicious, but it relies heavily on that nostalgia. It will be interesting to see how this band moves forward and finds its own distinct identity.


10. The Debbie for Song of the Year 
Winner: Happy - Linn Koch Emery
Runners Up: I Guess Time Just Makes Fools of Us All - Father John Misty, Raccoons - Caravan Palace

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This is always a ridiculous category to pick. So many great songs this year, and other than in exceptional cases how do you pick just one above the rest? Never mind that this decision may change from one moment to the next depending on mood. At some point you just need to make a call, and this year that call sees the Debbie awarded to exciting Swedish singer-songwriter Linn Koch-Emery and her mesmerising Happy. A compelling piece of power pop, with grungy hooks, ethereal vocals and yearning lyrics. It's an excellent track from an artist with huge potential.

Next up is the 8-minute piece de resistance, I Guess Time Just Makes Fools of Us All from Father John Misty's latest album. This song is just plain badass. Part funk-rock, part disco, densely instrumental with brass-band backing, and lyrics that go hard. Father John at his snarling best.

Finally, third place, because i'm too indecisive to just pick two things, goes to Raccoons from Caravan Palace's latest album. In an album full of memorable tracks, Raccoons ended up getting the most listening time from me this year. Just an infectiously catchy, euphoric bop of a track. A party song if ever there was one.


11. The Debbie for Live Concert of the Year 
Winner: Snow Patrol

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I'll admit, I might be a bit biased towards concerts which also accompany a kickass food festival with such pristine, feel-good vibes. But circumstances aside, this was one heck of a show. Snow Patrol are seasoned performers with an underrated discography over the past thirty years, and they know how to play to a crowd. Gary Lightbody is effortlessly charismatic on stage, and he still has the pipes and gravitas for the big hits. 
It's also hard not to admire a musician who is game for belting out his power ballads while wind and rain buffets against him in dramatic fashion. Quite the visual, top marks for commitment.


12. The Debbie for Exhibition of the Year 
Winner: Kolonial - Landesmuseum Zurich

kolonial zurich landesmuseum best art exhibition 2024







If you're wondering why the Swiss cultural museum is running an exhibition on colonialism, you're not the only one. After all, Switzerland is not exactly known for its colonial empire. This groundbreaking exhibition explores some of the less commonly understood ways through which people all over the world contributed to the crimes and injustices of the era, primarily through financing, mercenary work and political lobbying, and in particular the role that Switzerland as a nation played in this. It's a fresh and essential perspective of the global mechanics behind some of the worst excesses in post-industrial history, handled with extreme deftness and sensitivity. A remarkable exhibition, expertly curated. 


13. The Debbie for Book of the Year 
Winner: James - Percival Everett

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One of the year's most hyped books, and it did not disappoint. James has quite the concept behind it. A re-telling of the classic Mark Twain novel Adventures of Huckleberry Finn from the perspective of the slave Jim. Whatever preconceptions you might have about what this book will be, I expect it will defy expectations. 

What follows is an electrifying, action-filled turn-pager that expands on its subject matter through a 21st Century mindset. Subversively spotlighting the depravity of contemporary institutions in a way that is both insightful and hugely entertaining. Through the protagonist's journey, Percival Everett deftly examines the complexities of societal expectations and personal authenticity, presenting a narrative that is both thought-provoking and deeply moving. It's about as accurate to history as a Tarantino film, sure, but that doesn't make it any less immersive or memorable. 

Business & Technology

14. The Debbie for Scientific/Technological Breakthrough of the Year 
Winner: Casgevy, the first CRISPR Therapy

casgevy crispr best important technological breakthrough 2024







CRISPR/Cas9, a technology that allows the treating of disease through direct gene editing, is an absolutely revolutionary technology that will change the world. It's long been discussed and developed, and in 2024, we saw the first FDA approved therapy utilising the technology, Casgevy. This therapy has been approved for the treatment of sickle cell disease and certain variants of beta-thalassemia, two devastating blood disorders. This one-time treatment involves collecting a patient's hematopoietic stem cells, editing them using CRISPR/Cas9 technology to increase fetal hemoglobin production, and reinfusing them after myeloablative conditioning. Clinical trials have shown promising results, and this is just the beginning.


15. The Debbie for Videogame Platform of the Year
Winner: Moonlight

moonlight streaming platform app best console for gaming 2024







It is long past time to update this award. The landscape of gaming has changed, it is archaic to suggest that games now solely require physical hardware, a console or PC. Increasingly, one might use a cloud-based gaming service, or a subscription service, or an app, as their primary platform. This year's tip of the hat goes to Moonlight, a free and open-source app that allows users to stream games from their PC to various devices, including smartphones, tablets, smart TVs, and other computers. 

If you're like me, and you've dabbled in Steam Remote Play, you've no doubt been left disappointed by its lack of stability, its choppiness, or the fact that it just flat out refuses to work with certain games sometimes. Built on NVIDIA's GameStream technology, Moonlight mirrors the performance and visual fidelity of games running on a PC, enabling users to play demanding titles on less powerful devices with minimal latency. As someone with a beast desktop computer the size of a building, Moonlight is fast becoming my go-to method to play games on the go, and compared to alternatives, like Steam Remote Play, the difference is night and day.


16. The Debbie for Videogame of the Year 
Winner: Frostpunk 2 (PC, MacOS, Playstation, Xbox)
Runners Up: Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (PC, Playstation), Neva (PC, MacOS, Playstation, Switch, Xbox)

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2024 was always going to struggle in the shadow of 2023, perhaps the most remarkable year for gaming releases in a generation. Indeed, 2024 ended up being somewhat quiet, even by regular standards. Nevertheless, there were still plenty of memorable titles worthy of claiming these awards. Taking the big prize, we have Frostpunk 2, the sequel to 11 Bit Studio's 2018 survival city-builder. Set in a compelling post-apocalyptic Britain that has descended into a new ice age, Frostpunk 2 maintains the unique Victorian sci-fi aesthetic and themes of the original, while expanding the gameplay into new areas, bringing in greater RPG-style decision making and faction management. The result is one of the best narrative city-builders yet made, and a wonderful expansion into this fascinating universe.

For runner up, we have a title on which I am torn. Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth is the second chapter in Square-Enix's remake of the legendary 1997 RPG, and for the most part it is sublime. This is the first title in many years that truly manages to capture the magic of those classic Square RPGs. The characters, their relationships, the vibe, it's all 100% on point. It also expands massively on its predecessor by adding a massive and beautiful open world to explore, full of mini-games, side quests and activities. Unfortunately, the phrase a mile wide and an inch deep comes to mind often. Many of these activities often feel little more than time-sinks. To be clear, an open world can elevate a game, but a lacklustre open world is often worse than no open world at all. Fortunately there is still more than enough magic here to make this one of the titles of the year, but it falls just narrowly short of "true classic" status.

And in third place we have Neva, the second title from Gris developers Nomada Studio. Those who played Gris will find Neva immediately familiar, from the side-scrolling puzzle-platforming to the painterly art style. But Neva expands on the formula with more ambitious storytelling, more involved gameplay and combat. It's everything we loved about Gris, but better. Tighter, more beautiful, more polished. An excellent title from one of the most exciting developers in the industry.


17. The Debbie for Company of the Year
Winner: Manilife

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This award is always a choice between a great product, or a company with a praise-worthy ethos. Fortunately in this case, it's both. Bluntly, Argentinian peanut butter producer Manilife are the undisputed global kings of peanut butter. Forget your Skippy or your Jif. Once you try the Manilife deep roast flavours, you'll wonder how you ever abided lesser nut butters. But it's not just delicious, it's also a company that makes a point of its ethical and sustainable processes. This includes its farming practices, its compensation of workers, and its ingredients (no palm oil here). It had long been the bane of my existence that palm-oil free peanut butters mostly end up a sloppy mush, but not so with Manilife, a peanut butter which miraculously manages to keep that velvety smooth, consistent texture that we love so much.

Sports

18. The Debbie for Footballer of the Year 
Winner: Vinícius Júnior - Real Madrid

vinicius junior real madrid best footballer player in the world football 2024







Were I trying to pick a best footballer for the 2023/24 season, or the 2024/25 season so far, my pick might be different. But when it comes to a player who has excelled consistently over the entire calendar year, there really is one clear stand out. Vinícius Júnior is the brightest of Real Madrid's many stars, a combination of electrifying pace, exceptional skill and quickness of thought. Vinícius Júnior is a devastating player on his day and a big part of what makes Madrid the dominant side in world football at the moment.


19. The Debbie for Young Footballer of the Year 
Winner: Cole Palmer - Chelsea

cole palmer chelsea england best young footballer player in the world 2024







Unironically a strong contender for the best footballer of any age. Since the start of last season, no footballer has achieved a greater goals & assists tally than Cole Palmer. That he did this while playing for a decidedly inconsistent Chelsea side makes the feat all the more impressive. Cole Palmer's £40million signing from the Manchester City youth team, with barely a first team appearance to his name, was originally the target of mockery, but in hindsight Chelsea have absolutely robbed City here. A player who surely needs to become the centre of both this Chelsea team, and the England national side.


20. The Debbie for Football Manager of the Year 
Winner: Xabi Alonso - Bayer Leverkusen

best football manager in the world 2024 xabi alonso bayer leverkusen







A non-contest this year, Xabi Alonso's feat of guiding unfancied Bayer Leverkusen to not only pip Bayern Munich to a league title that is generally considered a foregone conclusion, but to do so undefeated for the entire season, is a truly remarkable accomplishment. Regardless of whether he duplicates this success again, Alonso has clearly established himself as one of the brightest prospects in football management, and it's a career we will watch with great interest.


21. The Debbie for Football Club of the Year 
Winner: Real Madrid

football club of the year 2024 real madrid







At a time when most of the big clubs in football are either on the decline (Man City, Barcelona), or on the rise (Chelsea, Liverpool), there's only really one club at the moment that has managed to stay around the pinnacle of the sport on a consistent basis, and that's Real Madrid. Domestic champions, champions of Europe. Wealthiest club in the world, highest turnover. By any metric, Real Madrid currently stands as the apex football club. But these things never last forever, who will be the next challenger to chase Madrid's crown?


Current Events

22. The Debbie for Politician of the Year 
Winner: Javier Milei

javier milei politician of the year 2024







Here's one that will ruffle some feathers. I can't say I agree much with Javier Milei or his politics, but you simply can't argue with the results. Argentina has undergone what many are referring to as an economic "miracle". Inflation is down, poverty down, unemployment down. It's easily the big success story in political achievement for the year. Much has been said about Milei, describing him as the Trump of Argentina, but this has always struck me as a not very sharp comparison. Milei may be a conservative, but he is no Trumpist, he is no Putinist, he's not an authoritarian, rather he is a proper old school economic liberal, and he deserves his due.


23. The Debbie for Scandal of the Year 
Winner: Mark Robinson, the porn-addicted "black Nazi"

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As far as political scandals go, this one is pretty hard to top. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for Governor of North Carolina had to mess up pretty bad in order to lose a lean-red state that Trump carried by three points in a Republican-favourable year, and boy did he. Robinson was already a controversial figure: a pro-slavery transphobe, homophobe and self-described "black Nazi". Incredibly, though, that wasn't what lost him the election (not entirely anyway). What really pushed him over the edge was the reveal of graphic, bigoted comments he had made on the online pornographic forum "Nude Africa". These comments really need to be seen to be believed and, I can't stress this enough, don't look for them, it's not worth the hit to your sanity! Suffice it to say, it was bad. Bad even by the standard of the cartoonishly batshit crazy standard of American politics.


24. The Debbie for Cause of the Year
Winner: The Political Independence of Europe

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If there is one cause that I wish to champion over the next 12 months, it is the importance of Europe stepping up and standing on its own feet. These past several years have shown us that we can no longer rely on America, either from a security, a moral, or an economic perspective. Europe is big enough and developed enough to take that important role on the world stage. I include in this discussion non-EU states such as the UK that nevertheless remain an integral part of the European community. If Ukraine is to remain free, if Putin's advance into Europe is to be stopped in its tracks, then Europe needs to step up and show that it can lead.


25. The Debbie for Person of the Year 
Winner: Yulia Navalnaya

yulia navalnaya person of the year 2024







Russian economist Yulia Navalnaya has gained significant attention this year following the death of her husband, Alexei Navalny, a prominent dissident, in February. After his passing in prison, Navalnaya vowed to carry on his work, accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of being responsible for his death. She has since engaged with world leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Often referred to as the "first lady" of the Russian opposition, Navalnaya stands as an inspirational figure in the fight against tyranny. A woman of unparalleled bravery who remains defiant even as her life is endangered by the threat of assassination and torture perpetrated by her opponents.


Social & Lifestyle

26. The Debbie for Restaurant of the Year 
Winner: Kochi

kochi new york best restaurant 2024







New York is on something of a roll when it comes to dining out, and for 2024, there is no place I would rather eat right now than Kochi in Hell's Kitchen. Pitched as a Korean BBQ skewer tasting menu, this undersells just how good the food is here. Chef Sungchul Shim, with experience from esteemed establishments like Per Se and Neta, presents dishes that artfully blend traditional Korean royal court cuisine with contemporary techniques, offering a great variety of different dishes: vegetable, fish, meat, dessert. All absolutely incredible, and presented with real visual flair. A truly top level dining experience is an expression of creativity as much a meal, and Kochi does this as well as any place in the world right now. It can not be recommended highly enough.


27. The Debbie for New Restaurant of the Year 
Winner: K'Far

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Sticking with a New York theme, we have the new restaurant of the Hoxton in Williamsburg. K'Far is an Israeli place, named for the town of K'Far Saba in Israel. Styled as an all-day culinary village, serving breakfast, lunch and dinner, that has garnered acclaim for its vibrant atmosphere and diverse menu offerings. The establishment seamlessly transitions from a morning coffee and pastry spot to a lively dinner venue. Amid an array of tasty dishes, the hummus stands out in particular (with a number of variants - the beef hummus being the pick of the bunch) as some of the best I have ever tried. 


28. The Debbie for Club/Bar of the Year 
Winner: The Anchor Inn

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Picture the most stunningly idyllic seaside pub, and your mind's image probably comes close to The Anchor Inn in Dorset. A classic old school English pub, situated directly on the beach, with a view that can't be beat. The interior delicately balances comfort and tradition, smartly renovated, with communal dining spaces and intimate nooks. The bar offers local beers and a surprisingly deep selection of liquors, while the kitchen serves up coastal pub classics with locally sourced ingredients. But the real star is the beachfront terrace, boasting panoramic coastal views and a dedicated outdoor bar. It really is about as splendid a place as you will find.


29. The Debbie for Destination of the Year
Winner: Dorset

dorset best holiday destination 2024







Sometimes the finest R&R spots are right on your doorstep. So it proved to be in 2024, with the sunny south coast of England taking the prize. Dorset is that most rare of things. Beautiful coastal scenery ensconced in gently rolling Cotswolds-style hills. Remote enough from the rest of the country to allow for a refreshing detachment, but with options for dining and socialising. Whether your preference is for quaint old sea-side hotels, or cosy pubs on the beach, I can't wait to go back. 


30. The Debbie for Wine of the Year 
Winner: Cinuzzi Chianti Classico 2021

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Offering a well-balanced profile of Sangiovese grapes. The Cinuzzi Chianti Classico delivers bright red fruit flavors like cherry and raspberry, complemented by subtle earthy notes of leather and spice. The 2021 vintage showcases refreshing acidity and fine, polished tannins, making it a versatile choice for pairing with a wide range of dishes, from pasta and pizza to roasted meats. Its approachable yet refined character ensures it stands out as a quintessential Chianti Classico.


31. The Debbie for Tipple of the Year 
Winner: Cotswolds Distillery, The Dan

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The best kept secret in the west country; Cotswolds Distillery has made quite a name for itself in English gin, but the real long-term goal has always been to become a whisky producer of renown. In recent years, this has been achieved and thensome, with the Cotswolds whisky perhaps the finest in the south of the United Kingdom. The pick of 2024 is their ultra limited edition The Dan. With only 162 bottles produced, The Dan is aged in an American Oak cask seasoned with Pedro Ximenez sherry, with notes of candied pecans and vanilla.


Well there you have it, another year in the books. Here's to 2025 being a year of peace, good health, and further progress. See you there!









Sunday, 22 December 2024

The year winds down once more. As always, we have the definitive end of year Debbie Awards coming up in just a few short days. But before we get to that, let's warm up with The Ephemeric's now annual book review, a curated list by your faithful blog-enthusiast of whatever the heck I happened to feel like reading over the past year, old and new. Now, this is not an exhaustive list. Every now and then I will read a "just for fun" book that doesn't need mentioning here. Consider the below a primer as to the essential readings of 2024.


one book every month year challenge book review annual 2024 ephemeric

January - "The Deep Sky" by Yume Kitasei

The Deep Sky was deeply disappointing. I really wanted to like this book, I love a good space exploration story. Unfortunately this novel is just full of bad logic, bad science, silly plot contrivances and about 60% filler. 

The starting hook is pretty solid. Space mission to colonise a distant planet. Somewhere along the way, the captain is murdered, and it falls to our lead character, an outsider who wasn't even supposed to be on the mission and has grave insecurity as to her place on the ship, to figure out what's happened. So far, so Alpha Centauri. Good stuff. Unfortunately that's where the good ideas end. In order to avoid conflict and distraction, this ship is crewed entirely by women, who intend to artificially inseminate themselves in order to populate the new colony. Questionable, but ok. And rather than wait until the end of the mission to do so, they all inseminate themselves currently, while the mission is ongoing. Because apparently no one considered that a dangerous space mission crewed entirely by pregnant women, all pregnant at the same time no less, might be a bad idea.

So the premise is pretty silly, not helped by the fact that the crew are written more like stroppy teenagers than trained professionals. But most egregious is the science. This book is written by someone who clearly does not grasp the basics of space. The terminology is wrong, the use of relativity is wrong, so much is wrong. And yeah, I suppose this is all a bit wonkish, but why write a sci-fi novel if you don't really care about the science? 


February - "Unfit and Improper Persons" by Kevin Day, Kieran Maguire, and Guy Kilty

This is a great read for anyone with an interest in the business side of football. From the creators of The Price of Football podcast, Unfit and Improper Persons takes a deep dive into the inequities of the football pyramid, the financial aspects of running a football club, and the myriad and often bafflingly archaic red tape that must be navigated in order to play what, on paper, appears to be such a simple game.

All of this is broken down into simple and easily digestible tidbits, illustrated through the narrative of a fictional football club, established at the foot of the English league system, with aspirations of reaching the Premier League, Wrexham style. It's this narrative simplicity that works best, bringing to life what could otherwise be dry and technical subject matter with humour and clarity. If there is a downside, it's that those who are already well-versed in the material may find this all a bit familiar, but for those looking to learn, it's about as fine a primer as has been written.


March - "Anita de Monte Laughs Last" by Xochitl Gonzalez

Based on the true story of Ana Mendieta, Anita de Monte is a Cuban-American artist whose sudden and untimely death at the hand of her husband is quietly swept under the rug. Flashforward a few decades and we have Raquel, an art history student currently working on her thesis, who slowly becomes fixated on the work of the long-forgotten Anita de Monte, and uncovers the truth of her past. 

What follows is ultimately a revenge tale, a parable of inequality in the art world, and a charming enough example of magical realism in fiction. But it suffers from inconsistency. One of the two main perspectives is clearly a more interesting story than the other, and the shifts between humour and drama can be quite jarring. So the result is a book of two halves, one interesting, one lacking any real urgency, with some odd tonal choices.


April - "The Last Murder at the End of the World" by Stuart Turton

An intriguing, high concept story. The Last Murder at the End of the World is set on an idyllic, but strictly controlled island, the last refuge of a post-apocalyptic world that has been overrun by killer fog. This seemingly safe and well ordered community is rocked by the murder of one of the island leaders, a murder which triggers a series of failsafes that had been keeping the fog at bay. A race against time ensues to solve the case before the fog consumes everything.

It's all very interesting, bringing to mind the works of Isaac Asimov, or the high concept sci-fi films of the 1970s and 1980s. But, frankly, it's also a bit derivative and you’ll see the twist coming from two towns over (especially fans of the aforementioned Asimov). There's also a few writing issues. The narrative can be difficult to visualise due to lack of meaningful description or context. It's not helped by the fact that there are a huge number of characters, many of whom appear only briefly and for largely inconsequential purposes. It can be a lot of work to memorise their roles and relationships for not much benefit. I did enjoy the ending, however.


May - "James" by Percival Everett

One of the year's most hyped books, and it did not disappoint. James has quite the concept behind it. A re-telling of the classic Mark Twain novel Adventures of Huckleberry Finn from the perspective of the slave Jim. But whatever preconceptions you might have about what this book will be, it defies expectations. 

What follows is an electrifying, action-filled turn-pager that expands on its subject matter through a 21st Century mindset. Subversively spotlighting the depravity of contemporary institutions in a way that is both insightful and hugely entertaining. Through the protagonist's journey, Everett deftly examines the complexities of societal expectations and personal authenticity, presenting a narrative that is both thought-provoking and deeply moving. It's about as accurate to history as a Tarantino film, sure, but that doesn't make it any less immersive or memorable.


June - "You Like it Darker" by Stephen King

A new short stories collection from Stephen King, including expanded versions of old work, as well as some never before published stories. Pretty darn good collection as well, some of better work King has put out in a while. 

King's work is often blankly labeled as "horror", which does a disservice to work that is often more thought-provoking than scary. This collection falls firmly into the thought-provoking camp, with a number of highly memorable stories. One in particular, Danny Coughlin's Bad Dream, is mesmerising. More novella than short story, this one occupies around 200 of the collection's 500 pages and is practically begging for a film adaptation at some point.


July - "Zodiac" by Ai WeiWei

With two very long books on either side, I admittedly chose the graphic novel Zodiac to provide a bit of a break. I'm glad I did, however.

Zodiac is a graphical memoir from Chinese dissident artist Ai WeiWei, recounting stories of his life, career, and imprisonment, built around a framework of the twelve signs of the Zodiac, and interweaved with Chinese folklore. It's a fresh and deeply creative way to depict such a narrative, helped by some truly gorgeous artwork by Italian comic artist Gianluca Costantini. This is not one for your Kindle, print copy or colour screen only.


August - "The Demon of Unrest" by Erik Larson

After being blown away by last year's book of the year, the non-fiction The Wager by David Grann, I decided to make non-fiction a regular staple of my year's readings. For 2024, I went with The Demon of Unrest, by Erik larson.

This is a vivid and detailed recounting of the five months between the election of Abraham Lincoln, and the onset of the American Civil War. The Demon of Unrest introduces the relevant characters and personalities, the agendas and dynamics that made this slow-burn crisis an inexorable march towards war. Like the best non-fiction, this focuses on the people and their motivations, immersing you into each event as if it were a novel. Larson uncovers far greater depths and intrigue than most of us would ever have suspected could fit into such a short space of time, and the result is a genuine page turner of a book.


September - "The Thursday Murder Club" by Richard Osman

Opting for something a bit lighter next, and upon announcement of the incoming Netflix film, I went with The Thursday Murder Club, the first novel in Richard Osman's series of the same name.

Set in a peaceful retirement village, the story follows a group of quirky and endearing seniors who spend their days solving cold cases—until a real murder lands in their laps. Osman’s debut novel appeals with its sharp dialogue and wit, but I found myself left strangely cold. For a whodunnit, the breadcrumbs left throughout the novel mostly don't lead to anything, with the various mysteries left unrelated and disconnected. The super short chapters (many coming in at less than a page long) and constant switching between characters also makes it difficult to connect to any one person in this novel, or to explore their depths beyond the surface level. Breezy, fun, but largely inconsequential.


October - "I Cheerfully Refuse" by Leif Enger

Set in a not-too-distant future America, one which has seemingly collapsed into chaos and lawlessness, I Cheerfully Refuse follows an aspiring musician as he sets sail on Lake Superior in search of his departed, deeply beloved, bookselling wife. If the tagline reads a bit like ChatGPT coming up with a concept targeted at 2024 literary critics, the result actually lives up to its high concept premise.

This is a novel that grows on you after reading. Truthfully, there were times when I found it difficult to get through while reading, slow-burning and somber as it is. But ultimately, there is something deeply ingraining about this novel's quirky characters and the bizarre incidents and dilemmas they encounter. Through its lyrical prose and richly drawn characters, the novel delves into themes of resistance, renewal, and the pursuit of joy in the face of life’s challenges. The story is a gentle reminder that even small acts of defiance can carry profound meaning, making it a deeply resonant and uplifting read for those seeking hope and inspiration in everyday life.


November - "The Life Impossible" by Matt Haig

Following up his best-selling blockbuster of a novel, The Midnight Library, was always going to be a tough ask for Matt Haig. With that in mind, I actually quite enjoyed this.

Told through the framing of a series of personal correspondence, The Life Impossible follows a retired math teacher who travels to Ibiza in search of a long lost friend, and uncovers a mystery far greater than she ever imagined. There is something I find quite nostalgic about this novel, almost a throwback to the classic feel-good sci-fi fantasy movies of the 1990s that I grew up with. An expat travels to an exotic island, ingratiates herself with the locals, hears their tall tales and slowly realises the limits of her skepticism. The trouble is, there isn't much here that we haven't seen before. It all feels a bit too familiar, and while it's all good, there isn't much in the way of truly original ideas.


December - "The City and its Uncertain Walls" by Haruki Murakami 

Oof. I am usually a pretty big fan of Haruki Murakami. In his decades long career, the legendary Japanese novelist is credited with getting many, myself included, into reading. His blend of magical realism and the mundanity of life is practically a unique genre unto itself, one that has spawned many copycats over the years. Yet, his work has fallen out of fashion in recent times. The City and its Uncertain Walls is a perfect illustration of why that is.

This is a novel that just never really gets going. The key to the success of his earlier work has been to seamlessly integrate the weird to the mundane, to make it relatable and easily digestible, and in doing so, to open up readers to entirely new ideas without them even realising. This novel feels like it skips that first step, it starts off full of alien concepts and terminology which are never really defined or traced back to the real world, making them difficult for readers to relate. The plot meanders with little direction and at a glacial pace, and while it does pick up a little in the second half, it rarely feels like it justifies its own existence. This feels like Murakami by the numbers..


So there it is. Twelve months in books. Can I keep it going another year? You bet, because reading is awesome.









Sunday, 8 December 2024


ephemeric james selina one year living life switzerland zurich london seegraben pfaffikon
I remember vividly the first time I visited my wife,  then girlfriend, in Switzerland. After all, it was the first and only time I’ve ever traveled somewhere, and ended up in the wrong country. 

It’s not as dramatic as it sounds. Switzerland just happens to be a uniquely multi-polar nation. The sort of country where airports have different exits for different countries. So when you see that sign with “sortie” written on it against a backdrop of the tricolore, that’s not just a translated exit sign, it’s literally saying “this way lies France”, which seems kind of obvious when I write it down, but then common sense often eludes me. Fortunately, one quick nonchalant look around to make sure no one noticed my blunder, a quick course correction, and I was back on my way, as intended, to Switzerland.

Little did I suspect that, some 10 years later, I would be returning to Switzerland as a bona fide resident. Where once stood a discombobulated London boy easily confused by airport signage, now stands a guy who flashes his resident card upon entry, like a VIP being led into the smokey back room of a very expensive Apfelschorle bar.

Switzerland has a reputation for being a notoriously difficult place for outsiders to integrate, especially those who don’t speak one of the four national languages, Swiss German, French, Italian, and Romansh, fluently. Well, I’ve been here exactly one year now, and I have thoughts.

The Country
They call Switzerland "The Golden Cage", the quality of life being such that, once you've lived here, it's difficult to adapt to life anywhere else. On first impression, it's easy to see why. 

The country is clean, safe and well organised. Even in the densest city centre, you walk the streets with ease and confidence without ever feeling under any kind of risk. Public services work, and they're efficient. Universal healthcare is (relatively) affordable, and easily accessed, provided by publicly regulated private insurance. Public transport is easy, clean and on time. Before I moved here, my wife would always boast proudly that she could tell you when a train would arrive, to the minute, and on which platform, months in advance. She wasn't exaggerating. It gets to the point where you'll find yourself complaining about a train being two minutes late, something which would be a great result in London. Golden cage indeed.

But there is a darker element to this. Switzerland rightly presents itself as a model of efficiency and function, and as a nation it goes to great lengths to keep it that way. Rules are much more restrictive here than in other countries. Household waste can only be thrown out in specifically designated bags, marked with paid labels. Disposing of waste without a purchased label comes with serious penalties. Disposing of household waste in a public bin comes with serious penalties. Yes, there are officers who patrol the streets specifically for this purpose, and they will take any infringements with dead seriousness. Depending on where you live, you may also face restrictions as to the time of day you can do laundry, or take showers.

This is a nation of collective responsibility. It remains clean and in working order because everyone does their part to keep it that way, and this is enforced, rather than a matter of choice. This is not a criticism, but life in such a regulated society, however well-intentioned, requires a big adjustment for someone immigrating from a city like London. I imagine that for someone moving over from the United States, a land that prioritises personal freedom above all else, the culture shock will be even greater.

The first thing that hits you when you arrive is the natural beauty. This is a stunning country, with postcard views in every direction. Mountains, lakes, forests. The natural landscape forms an integral part of Swiss identity, both something to be proud of, and to be respected. This is a nation of people who looked at some of the harshest, most inaccessible terrain on the planet and thought to themselves "yeah, let's build there". They ski as soon as they can walk. Their weather-hardened infrastructure remains operable through a blizzard, where London would shut down with even a light dusting of sleet. The Swiss people understand, better than anyone else on Earth, how to master their environment, not through conquest, but adaptation.

In terms of beauty, the cities and towns are more of a mixed bag. The historic city centres are absolutely gorgeous, with romanesque and gothic stonework, romantic cobbled streets and buzzy town squares. Small villages dot the countryside with its iconic alpine chalets and intricate woodwork. But Switzerland is a very small country. Its population has doubled since the mid 20th Century, which means that a large chunk of the nation's existing urban construction consists of that rather ugly post-war function-over-form low-cost style. Concrete and chain-link fences. To be fair, some of the nicer examples of new-build developments have developed a cool, brutalist charm, but many of them just feel low-cost and mass-produced, especially when combined with the late 20th Century's automobile-centric design philosophy. 

As with many nations which underwent urbanisation in the post-war era, Switzerland adopted the automobile-centric design which was so in trend. Dense roadways often run directly through urban and residential centres, or alongside lakes and other areas of natural beauty. It's a style that has aged poorly, although in fairness Switzerland, like most other recently urbanised nations, has started trending away from this, and the newest housing tends to be much nicer, and more in keeping with modern sensibilities. For example, in the town we live, just a short distance outside of Zurich, all new builds are closely regulated in order to maintain the local appearance. It's not that the construction needs to be old fashioned, or an imitation of the old. It's more of a modern twist on the classical aesthetic.


The Amenities
What does one actually do in Switzerland? As previously noted, Switzerland is a small country compared to the UK, and even its largest city, Zurich, has a mere fraction of what a city like London has to offer. In my view, London is one of only three or four cities in the world where you will never ever get bored, where new things pop up all the time and there is no end of available experiences. Zurich is not that. 

Zurich may not be a city of quantity, but it is a city of quality. Beautiful city centre with the lake, Opernhaus, charming old town, and even a view of the Alps. There's excellent shopping on Bahnhofstrasse, Europaallee, albeit at exorbitant Swiss prices, and some top notch department stores like Globus.

Zurich has a world class zoo. There may not be a Hampstead Heath or Hyde Park equivalent, but you don't need it because you can visit the surrounding natural wonders, such as Uetliberg, with stunning views and delightful hiking route featuring a scale-model of the Solar System.

One thing I've often heard from expats and visitors is that the food scene is lacking. This is not just a Zurich thing, but comments I've heard leveled at Switzerland in general; that the food is bad, that there aren't good restaurant options. I have to say I disagree. We've found a number of excellent restaurants in Zurich and beyond, from local Swiss cuisine, to Peruvian fusion, creative brunch corners, and even an excellent vegetarian restaurant. It's certainly not London, where you can find good options for just about every genre of food you can imagine, as well as several you can't, but there are excellent eateries in this country and it's getting better every year. They are, however, expensive. This is a theme you will see throughout this piece, but Switzerland is an eye-wateringly expensive country, and it's perhaps most notable with the restaurants. So I would contend that the food in Switzerland isn't bad, it's just far more expensive than it should be, and I can understand why people are much more inclined to dine at home.

In addition, there's much more to a country's food than its high-end restaurants. Visit the grottos of Ticino for some good local wine and polenta. Journey to the mountains for fondue and raclette. Say what you want about Swiss food, but they are light years ahead of us in their application of melted cheese. The Swiss are also rightly renowned for their baking, with excellent breads, cakes and strudels. Need I even mention the chocolate?

Zurich is known for being a culturally rich city. The opera house is the main attraction, putting on productions of the highest quality that are comparable with any other city in the world. But the city is also home to some world class museums, from the Zurich Kunsthaus, to the culturally-focused Landesmuseum. Throw in some high quality modern sporting and concert venues, a myriad of festivals and events, and it is clear that Zurich has much to offer. Still, one area where Zurich is noticeably lacking compared to London is the theatre scene, although in fairness there aren't many cities in the world that can compete with London in this regard. 

But of course while I live in Zurich canton, I don't technically live in Zurich city. I live in a very small village outside of Zurich, on the nearby Pfaffikersee. Ours is a region best known for its craftworks, woodworking, and textiles. Nearby attractions include an old textiles mill, a somewhat notable dinosaur museum (which I have yet to visit sadly) and, above all, the Jucker farm. Jucker is the primary tourist attraction for the region. A farm which has achieved some fame for its pumpkin festival each autumn, which includes an exhibition of elaborate pumpkin sculptures. But there is more to Jucker than just pumpkins. It's also a top notch brunch place, hosts summer BBQs, a maze and petting zoo for kids, and much more besides. It's an institution.

I mentioned earlier the Swiss connection to nature. Well, I can say that you feel this profoundly when you live in a place like I do. You're surrounded by nature, sure. So when it snows, it really snows. When it's hot, you feel the heat. But you feel it just as much in the culture. The local markets and produce, the seasonal festivals and events. Swimming in the lake, hiking in the hills. The Swiss people truly embrace nature and seasonality in a way that I've never seen in London.

But life is not all "going out and doing things", sometimes you just kick around at home. How does that compare? Digital infrastructure, in my area at least, is excellent. The internet cables are all brand new and state of the art, and the speeds I get far exceed anything I had in the centre of London. The television offerings are surprisingly deep. We even managed to get a package which contains many of the British TV stations, so I can still watch Match of the Day and Bake Off. The biggest surprise has been the football. Incredibly, I have access to more live football, including Premier League, in Switzerland than I had in London. This is due to every game being carried here, including the Saturday games that are prohibited from broadcast in the UK. I am awash in a sea of live football broadcast possibilities, and it is beautiful.


Life as an Anglo-American expat
One question that I have been asked frequently since moving to Zurich is whether I miss London. Of course I do. As I said, London is a unique city with endless action and every amenity you can imagine. But at the same time, I don't miss it anywhere near as much as I thought I would.

I like going out in London, but it's not as if I was doing that every day. It turns out I'm quite happy to live my day-to-day life in a more secluded and quiet location, especially as the city is easy enough to access. While I live in a fairly quiet town, a mere 25 minute train takes you into the centre of Zurich, far less time than it takes to get anywhere in London. As for London itself, an hour and 20 minute flight every now and again really isn't that big a deal, and so I still manage to get my London-fix when I need it.

So what of the Swiss people's notorious impenetrability to outsiders? I have to say that I have not really seen this, although granted I have a bit of a cheat-code with my Swiss wife, and so my experience may not represent that of most immigrants. Nevertheless, in my dealings I have always found the Swiss to be a friendly and welcoming people. Zurich in particular is a very international city with a great number of English speakers. Ultimately, I think if you embrace the Swiss way of life and contribute to the community, you will be welcomed here. If all else fails, just get a Swiss wife.












Saturday, 9 November 2024

It was tipped as the closest polled election in modern history, a true tossup. Ultimately, the 2024 coin flip did end up landing in the direction of Donald Trump, who will return to the White House for a second term, completing an undeniably remarkable political comeback for someone whose political career had been considered by most to be finished. The world is stunned once again as we head into a new era of deep uncertainty. How did this happen, what can we learn from it, and, looking at it objectively as a realist, what actually happens next?

2020 us presidential congress election house senate results roundup 46 trump biden democrat republican single term president
Results
These results are undeniably quite remarkable. Having lost the national popular vote in both of his previous Presidential bids, Donald Trump is on course to win it in 2024. He will be the first Republican to do so in 20 years. If his 2016 win was narrow and tinged with good fortune, the same can not be said about 2024. This is a good, decisive win for him.


He has gained ground across the country in just about every region and with every demographic, by an almost uniform margin. His victory appears to have been propelled by stronger turnout from rural voters, a demographic that many pundits had thought to be essentially maxed out in 2020, and by making inroads with non-white voters, particularly young males. While he does not appear to have regained lost ground with suburban and highly educated voters, nor does he seem to have lost any further ground with these voters.

While Trump was considered to have a good chance of victory, few expected him to win the national popular vote or to make the kinds of inroads with typically Democratic demographics that he has done.

When all is said and done, he is likely to have swept the battleground states, claiming a clear margin in the electoral college.


Interpretation
The first thing that jumps out from the results is that the polling averages were actually quite good this year. Pollsters took a lot of stick in both 2016 and 2020 for underestimating Trump's numbers, and while he will overperform the projected margins by around 2%, it is not an especially high error and well within normal expectations. Unfortunately for Kamala, the polls were close enough that a small error was enough to swing the race. This is democracy, sometimes you win close races, sometimes you lose them.

But while he was considered to have a good chance of victory, this result does still come as something of a surprise. The polls were close, but he did nevertheless trail Kamala Harris consistently, particularly among the so-called higher quality and more reputable pollsters. In actual fact, these pollsters ended up being less accurate than the averages. Selzer, the revered gold standard pollster of Iowa, known for being typically spot on in her state, endured an astonishing 17% miss, while other top of the line pollsters like Marist and Muhlenberg will end up 4-5% off. For whatever reason, these more established pollsters clearly have issues reaching Trump voters that has not been fully understood. The relative accuracy of the averages will certainly place a feather in the cap of all the data evangelists, many of whom had been taking stick for these views during the campaign.

Conversely, many of the other typical indicators failed miserably. The special elections, the primaries, the economic metrics and fundraising data, all pointed to a strong year for Democrats, which ultimately did not come to pass. Earlier in the cycle, Nate Cohn of NYT made waves for suggesting that this may indicate disproportionate strength for Trump among lower propensity voters, a prediction which, in hindsight, has turned out to be dead on. A lot of analysts (myself included) owe Nate a big apology for doubting him.

The results of this election will additionally require a radical rethink of how we conduct a political campaign. By any traditional measure, Kamala's campaign was light years ahead of Trump's. Trump had basically no ground game, no get out the vote operation, very little direct fundraising, was poorly disciplined and flopped at every traditional milestone, ie the debate, the convention. This all appears to have had no effect on the outcome, and it is clear that the things politicos consider to be essential infrastructure for a Presidential campaign may no longer be all that meaningful in this day and age.

So the big question on everyone's mind will be, why did this happen. This is a candidate who barely lucked his way to victory in 2016, and led his party to resounding defeat in every election since. During that time he attempted to violently overthrow the US Government, was found by a court to have raped a woman, convicted of felony fraud, to only scratch the surface. It was one thing when he won in 2016 as an unknown quantity and change candidate, but in 2024 we know what to expect, we know the chaos and ruination his first term brought to the country. Most people will be watching this and wondering, how did he suddenly become more popular than ever?

I hate to sound glib, or dismissive of my fellow Americans, but there really is no other way to say it. There are a lot of voters who simply are not well informed and have only a vague awareness of all of these things, and/or morally detached to the point where they just don't care about it. I say this not as an insult. I think there is a problem with the highly engaged, terminally online political enthusiast assuming that everyone else will be seeing the same news coverage as them, hearing the same sound bites. People really don't appreciate how politically disengaged the median voter is. I speak to Trump supporters all the time who tell me that they like him because he's "funny" or "entertaining". They know him as that businessman from the TV, and pretty much tune out the rest as "political stuff". That's really what it comes down to. Democrats can get outraged all they want (rightly) about January 6, your typical voter really isn't thinking about that. It doesn't affect them directly, so it's not their problem. Democrats have yet to find a solution to this.

It also can't be ignored that Trump has twice won against female candidates, and lost to a straight white man. As unseemly as it is to say, it seems pretty clear that America is still a pretty bigoted country that may not be ready to elect a woman President. One has to wonder if they may have been better served sticking with Biden, despite his issues. As much as I hate to say, this needs to be taken into account. The presumed "next in line" candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer may simply be too high risk for America's voters.

I would also like to give credit to Joe Biden. He has not been a bad President by any means. He was dealt an abysmal hand, dug the country out of a ditch and created something of an economic miracle. But it is clear that he should never have run for a second term. Dropping out when he did was probably still the right call, but it left Democrats with an untested candidate that no one had voted for, with a tiny amount of time to build a campaign. Had he declined to run for a second term from the start, and allowed a full primary process to play out, might things have turned out differently?

So what comes next? Understandably there is a great deal of fear in the country today, uncertainty as to what a second Trump term might bring. There has been a lot of talk of fascism, Project 2025, Trump turning the army on his own people and all manner of things. I have to say, as much as I dislike Trump, I think these fears are somewhat overblown. The fact is that the Office of President has quite limited powers in many ways, especially with thin majorities in Congress. In reality, there's only so much damage he can do in four years, and most of it is easily reversible by his successor. So for now, I don't really buy that this is the end of the Republic as some are saying, just another four years of chaotic governance for us to endure.

To be clear, that is not to diminish the seriousness of what has happened. A great many people's lives will be directly affected by America's choice. People will almost certainly die as a result of his abortion and healthcare positions. There is nothing good about what the next four years has to offer, but it really is just four years, after which America will have another chance to make a better choice. 

The more significant impact may well be felt overseas, where Trump's pro-Russia policies will leave the rest of the world in a precarious and unsafe position. The situation in Ukraine will become dire without American support, and there's every indication that Putin's wars of aggression will not stop at Kyiv. Europe will need to step up its game in the absence of American leadership. The Middle East is also likely to become even bloodier. Trump has no interest in helping Gaza or Palestine and will just let Netanyahu run roughshod over the region. I would not be at all surprised if he subsequently dragged us into a war with Iran as a result.

There is no denying that this is a sad day. It is sad that the rule of law will not be upheld with respect to the crimes committed by Donald Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists. It is embarrassing for Americans to have made this choice after everything that has happened, and the disaster that was Trump's first term. America has sadly failed its gravest test. Its institutions have failed utterly, and shown itself to be a nation of ignorance and corruption. If Putin's goal over this past decade has been to shine a spotlight on how ineffective, dysfunctional and vulnerable to manipulation western liberal democracies are, he has unquestionably proven this beyond doubt. That's the sad truth. 2020 appeared to be a turning point in that conflict, a redemption for America and our system of democracy. Instead it has turned out to be a mere temporary setback for Putin. I fear that culture war has now been lost, and that is a fact that America will need to grapple with going forward.











Thursday, 31 October 2024

We are now less than one week away from the 2024 Presidential election, an election that, depending on which news networks you view, either portends the end of American democracy, or an apocalyptic invasion by immigrants. Hyperbole aside, the results of this election will have major ramifications as to the direction of the country and indeed the world at large, from the Ukraine war to the future of NATO and global climate accords. Per tradition, it is time for this blog to deliver its forecast, shedding some light on the likely outcome and making a few final predictions.


2024 us presidential congress election house senate trump biden kamala harris democrat republican
Introduction
Here we are again, keeping alive that biennial tradition of forecasting the US elections. The reason I do this is simple: there is a ton of bad analysis out there, as well as flat-out misinformation. It is increasingly difficult to maintain a clear view of American politics (by design), and my intent is to provide just a little bit of unvarnished, unmanipulated context. 

Indeed, this blog has a pretty good track record when it comes to these forecasts. In the 2020 forecast we correctly called the winner in all three of the Presidential race, the House race and the Senate race. The Senate predictions were within 1 seat of the actual results and the Presidential predictions called every single state correctly except for Iowa and the lone electoral vote from Maine's 2nd Congressional district. In 2022, this blog was one of the few places to correctly predict that Democrats would hold the Senate and remain competitive in the House, in an election where most were predicting a red wave that never materialised. I say this not to brag but to point out, in all frankness, that if you're looking for some indication of how this thing is leaning and what is likely to happen on November 5th, you could do a lot worse than The Ephemeric.

So let's get to it. The White House, House of Representatives and Senate are all up for grabs. Despite what you may have heard in the media, there is a favourite in all three contests, although it remains very close. The topline prediction is this: The Ephemeric predicts Kamala Harris to win the Presidency, the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans to take control of the Senate.


Presidential Election Verdict: Kamala Harris Elected President

election 2024 presidential race map republican democrat trump kamala harris electoral map forecastPredicted Electoral Map: Kamala Harris (D) - 286, Donald Trump (R) - 252.

The above map is based on data from a variety of aggregators, including Split Ticket, Fivethirtyeight, and analysts including Sabato and Cook Political, and shows the expected electoral map. The rest is pretty self explanatory: dark blue represents safe Democrat wins, light blue leans Democrat, grey is toss up. Meanwhile on the other side, light red to dark red represents lean to likely Republican.

A few notes about this map. I have attempted to remove "toss ups" to the extent reasonable. I think analysts in general have become a bit too lazy about calling close states toss ups, rather than making an actual prediction. For example, Cook recently referred to a Wisconsin Senate race, with a polling average margin of 6%, as a toss up, which is just silly. For me, a toss up is a state that is literally too close to reasonably call, and I am drawing that line at under a 0.5% margin, and generally only where there is high quality polling indicating a victory for both candidates. A candidate leading by 1% in a state, yeah it's close but I can reasonably say that it's leaning towards one candidate based on the available data, so long as that lead is consistent in multiple high quality polls over an extended period of time. A 0.1% lead either way, on the other hand, is completely meaningless. I want to be clear though, just because a state isn't shown above as a toss up doesn't mean it isn't competitive, or realistically winnable by either side, just that there is a reasonably identifiable favourite as it stands.

In addition to looking at the polls, I am also taking into account other sources of data. This includes special elections & primaries, key economic data and trends, and the early voting data that has been made public. 

A quick caveat on the last one: early voting data should always be taken with a heavy pinch of salt. Historically, this is not especially indicative of the final results. Democrats usually do better in early and mail voting, so the fact that the early returns favour them doesn't tell us anything useful. But this can provide some useful clues when we compare the data to our priors and expectations. For example, in 2024 we would expect the volume of early/mail votes to be reduced from 2020, which took place in the height of the pandemic, and less Democratic-leaning due to the Republicans making a big early voting push, compared to 2020 when they attempted to brand it as some kind of fraud. Accordingly, if we see a state where turnout or Democratic advantage is increased relative to 2020, that wouldn't necessarily mean anything definitive, but it would be a bullish sign for Democrats. 

There are seven realistically competitive battleground states in the 2024 Presidential race: WI, MI, PA, NV, AZ, NC and GA. Beyond these seven, we could theoretically get an upset, like Democrats winning Florida or Texas, but it's unlikely. I would be quite confident in saying that all the other states will vote as indicated on the above map.

While this race remains close and competitive, Kamala Harris is favoured. There has been a lot of hype in the media about how this race is a toss up, or too close to call, and that really just isn't the case. Kamala Harris leads in the polls, both nationally and in sufficient battleground states to win, and has done pretty much constantly and consistently since she entered the race.

In fact, for all the talk about how unpredictable this election is, or the constant media oscillations between who's on top, this has been about as boring and consistent an election as we've seen in recent years. That may come as a surprise in a race where one candidate was convicted of multiple felonies, and the other quit halfway through the race to be replaced by his Vice President, but despite this the polling in recent weeks has been very steady. There's been a lot of chatter of different candidates having momentum, or surges in the polls, but as you can see, there's been basically zero net movement in the last several weeks. 

The high quality polling currently has Kamala around 3% ahead nationally. As anyone who follows American politics will know, the national popular vote is not what wins you the election, it's the electoral college. This gives us the so-called electoral college gap, ie the national margin that a candidate needs to have in order to be roughly tied in sufficient states to win the election. In 2020, Biden won the electoral college somewhat comfortably with a national popular vote margin of around 4.5%. It is generally expected that the Democratic Party candidate will need to be winning by around 2% nationally in order to win the electoral college, although there is some evidence that this gap may be narrower in 2024. The long and short of it is that a 3% national margin should be sufficient for Kamala to win, and in fact she can probably afford for the race to be a little bit narrower than that. If her lead ends up being less than 2%, however, then it starts getting a bit dicey. 

But while we can infer, to an extent, Kamala's chances based on the national margin, ultimately it's victory in the individual key states that will win this election. There's no sense beating around the bush, the key to this election is the rust belt battleground, WI, MI and PA. If Kamala wins those three states, she wins the election regardless of what happens elsewhere. 

The good news for Democrats is that Kamala has led in all three of these states pretty much constantly since entering the race, and is favoured to win all three. In fact, you need to look pretty hard to find high quality polling showing Kamala trailing in any of these three states. The data is consistent enough for me to say that Kamala is favoured in both MI and PA, albeit narrowly, with only WI remaining a true toss up. 

The Pennsylvania position requires a little more elaboration. Throughout this election, the primary focus of media coverage has been on Pennsylvania. It's obvious why, it's a massive state with a lot of electoral votes. It is reasonable to say that whoever wins this state is favoured to win the election as a whole. It is also the state that, in most analysts' estimation, is the closest in the polls. The last few days have seen a number of polls ranging from Trump +1 to Kamala + 2, with most showing a tie, averaging out at around +0.5% Kamala. So why don't I consider this a true toss up? A few reasons. Local and district-level polling has tended to be stronger for Kamala than the big national pollsters, with most showing Kamala either matching or improving upon Democrats' numbers in 2020. This is supported by the early numbers (keeping in mind my caveat, above, about reading too much into EV data) which is showing a higher than expected turnout in Democratic strongholds. 

But more to the point, it's difficult to see where Trump gets the votes he needs to win PA. Even the polls which have been more bullish for him still only show him with around 46% of the vote. There aren't enough votes in the rurals to get him up to the 49% or so he needs to plausibly win. He would need to get some serious movement towards him among either college educated suburban voters, or non-white voters in urban districts. Right now, the pollsters showing a toss up are betting on this happening, but there isn't a lot of tangible data to support it, and certainly we're not seeing that in the early vote or local polling. Conversely, there is some suggestion that pollsters may simply be "hedging" and herding towards a tie to avoid getting egg on their face - it is worth noting that most of these polls are making a point of providing data favourable to both sides, eg a poll showing Trump ahead head-to-head, but losing in the full field of candidates, or a poll showing Trump narrowly ahead with likely voters, but comfortably behind among registered voters. There does seem to be an element of pollsters not wanting to stick their necks out too far for fear of being wrong, and with that in mind it leaves me inclined to trust the local polling and fundamentals to a greater extent. Trump absolutely has a path to victory in PA, but it requires just about everything to go right for him. You would rather be Harris right now.

In my opinion, more people should be talking about Wisconsin. Of these three states, Wisconsin is the most purple, it is the one that has been closest in each of the last five electoral cycles, and the only state to regularly vote for Republicans in statewide elections in recent years. Crucially, while Pennsylvania has been trending left across recent years, Wisconsin has not, so it's much easier to believe that Wisconsin would suddenly shift to the right of 2020 and 2022 than Pennsylvania. Let's put it another way: I can't see a situation where Kamala wins Wisconsin, and loses Pennsylvania, but the reverse is very plausible. In other words, Wisconsin is the state to watch. If Kamala fails to win MI and PA, I would be surprised. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is a true toss up, and pretty much a must-win state for Trump.

Yet, this demonstrates just how much of an uphill battle Trump faces. If Kamala does win MI and PA (which seems more likely than not) then she only needs to pick up one out of WI, AZ, NC and GA. Trump would need to run the board on all of them. 

Of these, Kamala leads the polls in Wisconsin. NC and GA are essentially tied, with some polls showing Kamala ahead, others showing Trump ahead, but with the margins negligible. Statistically speaking, you would expect Kamala to win one of these tied races. Arizona is a race where Trump leads, narrowly but consistently enough that you would have to call him a favourite (JD note: since writing, there have been a glut of polls in AZ showing Kamala ahead, so this may end up being more of a true toss-up than initially thought).

All in all, these four states are a coin flip. You would expect Kamala to win at least one or two of these just by probability. She could win more, she could win fewer. The bad news for Trump is he needs to win all of them. It's very possible that he does win all of them, but certainly the less likely outcome.

It's also worth noting the down-ballot races in these states (more on these later). Democrats are currently running with significant leads against Republicans in statewide races in WI, AZ and NC. The latter two in particular feature especially problematic Republicans with major scandals or popularity issues. The suggestion is that this could potentially have a knock-on effect on the Presidential election. While this is plausible, history tells us that the top of the ticket race tends to be the greater driver to the polls. In other words, Trump is more likely to lift up unpopular candidates, than be dragged down by them. In practice, the result will likely be somewhere in the middle, but closer to Trump's numbers. This may seem minor, but with such close margins it could be material.

Then there are the often overlooked primary and special election results from this past year. Throughout this election cycle the election results have been indicative of a far more left-leaning year than the polls, with primary and special election results very strongly bullish towards the Democrats. Democrats have consistently overperformed their polls, including in some key bellwether contests and open primaries where they were able to run against Republicans. Trump, meanwhile, generally underperformed his primary polling to the tune of 15-20%. He even managed to lose a few states, making him one of the only incumbent or quasi-incumbent candidates to do so in the modern era.

In addition, the fundamentals clearly favour Kamala, with a strong economy, indicators trending the right way for the incumbent party, and a Presidential election year which, historically, has resulted in greater turnout from Democrat-leaning demographics. When you get this close to the election, the polls matter more, but in a tied race, these factors may just prove definitive.

Lastly, there is the effect of Trump himself. Trump likes to brand himself as a winner, but the undeniable fact is that Democrats have won pretty much every election since 2016, with the Republican nominee's divisive brand of politics receiving increasingly diminishing returns with each cycle. 

So Kamala is the favourite, but that isn't really how the race has been portrayed in the media. In fact, the average person following the election might be forgiven for thinking that Trump leads in the polls, or is favoured, as that is often how this election has been covered. 

Why the disparity between the data and the coverage? Well there's a few reasons. The first is that the "conventional wisdom" seems to hold that Trump will over-perform his polls, as he did in 2016 and 2020. To be blunt, this view is not a particularly sharp one. Polling errors are rarely consistent from one election to the next, even with the same candidates involved - in fact, no political party has ever overperformed polls in three consecutive presidential elections. Pollsters generally adjust their methodology to account for such errors, and in many cases are more likely to overshoot than repeat the same error. 

More to the point, the "polling errors" in 2016 and 2020 are a little overhyped. The 2016 polling miss resulted from the high number of undecided voters breaking for Trump, which analysts either missed or ignored - there are fewer undecided voters in 2024 (practically zero, compared to double digits in 2016), and so a much lesser risk of this happening again. The 2020 polling miss was nowhere near as substantial as claimed, and also not consistent from state to state. For example, Pennsylvania actually had zero error in 2020, while Georgia polls were actually biased towards Trump, things which never seem to be mentioned when the media discusses polling errors.

The simple fact is that there is no particular reason to think the polls will underestimate Trump. The polls in 2024 are not really comparable to either 2016 or 2020. If anything, they most closely resemble the 2022 polls, which underestimated Democrats significantly. 

The most notable feature of 2022 polling was the extent to which polling averages were influenced by, frankly, junk polls. This was driven by well-known propaganda pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar, but also by a new crop of unknown polling organisations which seemed to pop out of the ether with no track record. These pollsters deluged the averages and created the impression of a right wing wave election which never materialised. By contrast, the high quality pollsters indicated a close 2022 election. As a reminder, this blog was one of the few forecasts to correctly identify this phenomenon and predict a better than expected election night for Democrats. It's important because we're seeing the exact same thing in 2024. To be clear, polling averages are still invaluable, and the best indicator we have as to an electoral outcome, but some critical scrutiny is required.

It's also an unfortunate fact that there are simply far fewer high quality polls than there used to be, and this lack of clarity is contributing to the uncertainty among forecasters. By comparison, September and October 2020 saw the release of some 20+ Pennsylvania polls from high quality pollsters, this year we have seen basically nothing until the final days, and even then only from a small number of pollsters. Why this may be the case is a topic for a separate, much longer discussion.

All of this is to say: the polls are close. There's no particular reason to think Trump will over-perform them. There may in fact be greater reason to think that Democrats will over-perform. Your best bet for predicting the election is, as always, to follow the average, while filtering for high quality, reputable pollsters.

Ultimately, you would have to favour Kamala based on the data, and Trump faces the more uphill battle to reach 270. Make no mistake, the polls are super close, and Trump could still win this, but it would be a surprise. He is certainly not the favourite, as some are suggesting. If forced to make a firm prediction, I would say Kamala to win WI and one of GA/NC. WI has polled narrowly, but consistently to Kamala's favour. NC is close enough that I think the down-ballot races could give Kamala the edge. NV is a total toss up, but the fact that this state has been trending Republican in recent years gives me the sense that it will go for Trump. At a push, I would make Kamala to be a 60/40 favourite right now, which is pretty close to where the highest rated forecasters currently have the race.


House of Representatives Verdict: Democratic Majority

2024 us congress election house senate gerrymandering rigged illegalCurrent House Map: Democrats - 212, Republicans - 220.
Predicted House MapDemocrats - 226, Republicans - 209.
Approximate Net Change: Democrats gain 15-20 seats.
Key Races: AZ-01, CA-13, CA-27, CA-41, IA-01, IA-03, LA-06, NJ-07, NY-19, OR-05, NC-06, NC-13, NC-14

How things have changed. For the longest time, the House was considered to be a bit of a foregone conclusion. The extreme partisan gerrymandering employed by the Republicans resulted in a House where it was extremely unlikely that they would lose control, even in a year in which voters decisively backed their opponents. 

At its worst, it was estimated that Democrats needed to win nationally by the near landslide margin of 5% just to break even. Following the 2020 redistricting, that built-in advantage seems to have all but disappeared, as demonstrated by the 2022 election in which Republicans tied the popular vote, but only won a majority in the single digits. 

The new consensus estimate is that Democrats need to win nationally by about 1.5% to take a majority. Given Democrats currently lead nationally by around 3%, this would make them the narrow, but clear favourite to take control of the chamber this year.

Caveat, estimating the result in the House is far from precise. The balance ultimately comes down to individual races being won or lost, which depends on a myriad of factors beyond simply the national vote. The national vote merely serves as a useful estimate for a forecast that would ultimately require detailed analysis of hundreds of individual races. So consider this an estimate with a wide margin for error. Nevertheless, the odds remain in the Democrats' favour.


Senate Verdict: Republican Majority

election 2024 harris trump senate map forecast
Current Senate Map: Democrats - 51, Republicans - 49.
Predicted Senate MapDemocrats- 49, Republicans - 51.
Approximate Net Change: Republicans gain 2 seats.
Key states to watch: AZ, MT, NE, OH, TX

Let's begin by stating the obvious: this is a bad map for Democrats. Control of the Senate depends on them successfully defending numerous states that Trump is expected to carry easily, with very few apparent pick up opportunities. Even in a good year for Democrats, they would probably lose this map. The fact that it is even close is due to the gulf in candidate quality, a consistent feature in down-ballot races throughout the Trump era.

This leaves Democrats in a very precarious position. Currently, they are favoured to win races in OH, NV and AZ, all states where Trump is arguably favoured to win in the Presidential race. On top of this, they are defending seats in the battleground states of WI, MI and PA, albeit in races that they are broadly expected to win. The trouble is, even if they win all of these seats, Democrats still lose the Senate.

Maintaining control of the Senate will ultimately depend on Democrats successfully defending Tester's seat in deep red Montana, or pulling off an upset in equally deep red Texas or Nebraska.

Montana is an interesting race. It's not a state that Democrats are expected to come even vaguely close to competing at the Presidential level. But Tester is an institution, popular in his home state despite being a Democrat, and arguably a much stronger candidate than his opponent. The fact that he trails in the polls is due solely to the (D) next to his name, and while that fact makes the race competitive, it nevertheless makes him a clear underdog. Polls have started to move away from him of late, and accordingly I predict Republicans to take this seat.

Texas is just about in play due to the unpopularity of incumbent Republican Ted Cruz. Cruz has always been a divisive politician, even within his own party. He faces additional pressure in Texas following a number of scandals, most notably where he very publicly fled his home state for Cancun during the natural disasters of 2021, something from which his approval has never recovered. He only won re-election 2018 by a mere 3%, albeit in a blue-wave election year, and Texas has arguably trended left in the six years since. Currently he very narrowly leads in the polls against former professional football player Colin Allred. I still expect Cruz to win here, with Trump's presence on the ballot likely enough to pull him over the finish line, but it's close.

Lastly, I am flagging up the race in Nebraska. An interesting one, considering there isn't even a Democrat on the ballot. This is because of the independent run of Dan Osborn, a popular labor leader from the state. Osborn's surprise campaign has closed the race to within 2% in the polls, a testament to how advantageous it can be to run in a deep red state without the (D) next to your name. This race arguably is a toss up at this point. The only reason I give it to Republicans is because of the paucity of high quality polling in the state, as well as the ambiguity of whether Osborn would actually caucus with the Democrats should he win. Increasingly though, if Democrats keep control of the Senate, it's looking like it may come from this race.


Conclusion
So there it is. It's a close election, and one without close parallel due to the unique events that have occurred during the campaign. Nevertheless, the data presents a tangible, albeit narrow favourite. Ultimately, while the margins are tight, Harris simply has an easier path to 270. But this is far from a done deal. The race could still change in the final days, there could be polling error one way or the other, or independents/undecided voters could break unpredictably for one candidate. Such is the magic of democratic elections, you're never entirely sure which way it is going to end up. This forecast is probably about as accurate a sense of where things are going as can be formed right now, so take it for what it is, and good luck. 







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