Friday, 26 July 2024
Are you not entertained? There is rarely a dull moment in American politics, and this week delivered a particularly historic curveball, as incumbent President Joe Biden withdrew his re-election bid, throwing his endorsement behind Vice President Kamala Harris. How did this happen? Why? What does it mean for the upcoming election? Let's talk about it.
When this blog last spoke about the election in our way too early preview back in March, we set the baseline for what to expect from the 2024 election. As a relatively legislatively accomplished President, absent of major scandal, and presiding over a roaring economy, Joe Biden was in a strong position for re-election. History tells us that a President in his position is an overwhelming favourite for re-election.
At the time, I wrote that the number one risk to Biden's re-election bid, the thing that could potentially undermine all the advantages he held as an incumbent of a successful administration, was his age and health. In the end, that ended up being precisely what came to pass.
It became very clear in that ill-fated first Presidential debate that Biden's age was starting to catch up with him, and that his decline had clearly been worse than was publicly known. But to be clear, it was not the flubs, the mixed up names and other slips of the tongue that raised concern - his similarly aged opponent has more than his fair share of these - but the physical frailty and the lack of attention. This election is not just about who we want to be President in January, it's about who we want to be President in four years, and it became all too clear that Joe Biden does not have another four years of this highly demanding job within him.
So, like George Washington before him, Joe Biden did what was in the best interest of the country, and stepped aside, endorsing his Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. This can't have been an easy decision. Few in power choose willingly to part with it when they have the choice, and indeed it is hard to imagine his opponent ever making a similar choice in the interest of serving his country.
The primary driver behind this decision will have been the upcoming election, and the increasing doubts as to whether Joe Biden would be able to beat Donald Trump. Now to be clear, the general consensus had been grossly underestimating the chances that Biden could still win this election. The way pundits spoke of the race, you would think Biden was down 10 points, when in reality he was down maybe 2 points, some of which was likely to be a temporary post-debate dip, and Trump riding a bump from the Republican national convention. Polls were still showing this as a very competitive race, and any suggestion that it was well and truly out of Biden's reach is more "vibes" based than anything borne in the data.
But at the end of the day, a decision needed to be made quickly with the Democratic National Convention approaching. I suspect that, ultimately, it was not so much the current polling deficit that sealed the decision, so much as the potential for further age-related setbacks further down the line. It was a high risk and a risk that did not need to be taken.
The end result is that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee in November, with the opportunity to make history as the first woman to be elected President of the United States.
What are Kamala's chances in this election? The potential upside is clear. Joe Biden had a great number of advantages behind his bid, and Donald Trump a great number of detriments. The fact that Biden was polling competitively with Trump in spite of his age-related issues makes that clear. One would expect that another Democrat without this major weakness, but still able to take advantage of her party's strengths, would poll better. Add to this the fact that Kamala was polling at a similar level to Biden, despite a lower name recognition - and thus, more room to grow - and it would seem that Kamala comes into this race with a ceiling that is potentially far higher than Biden's.
Indeed Kamala's campaign is off to a near perfect start. Announcing the switch at the close of the RNC was a master stroke, effectively halting any momentum Trump may have received from his party's headline event. Not to mention, it comes at a time when Republicans are more or less locked in to their ticket, with less room to react to the change in circumstances.
In the first 24 hours, Kamala raised a record breaking $86million. At the time of writing, she has raised more than $200million this week, a new one week record. In the polls, Harris started level with Biden, a few points below Trump. But after just a few days, most polls are showing her level or ahead. Reuters/Ipsos has her 4pts ahead of Trump nationally. New York Times, a pollster that until now has been an outlier in showing strong Trump numbers, swung from +6 Trump to a tie. Kamala's net favourability is surging and has overtaken Trump. If this trend continues (a big "if", mind), Kamala is likely to lead in the polls soon.
The mood in the campaign has changed completely. Suddenly, it's the Trump campaign on defence, looking bewildered and unsure of how to proceed. Their attacks this week have flailed between the baffling (Kamala laughs too much) to the explicitly racist and sexist. Already there are signs that Donald Trump is looking for excuses to back out of the remaining scheduled debates. The momentum is very much with Kamala Harris, and the Trump campaign is running scared.
None of this is helped by Trump's pick for Vice President. Even before Biden dropped out, JD Vance seemed a terrible decision. Another Putinist Republican who exists solely to echo Trump's slogans and does little to expand the appeal of the ticket. I mean, Nikki Haley was right there and back on board. Even Burgum or Tim Scott would have been something. Vance is an absolutely baffling pick. Unpopular, unappealing, poorly vetted (if the stories coming out this week are any indication), and now it's too late for them to do anything about it - or very, very difficult and painful to do so anyway.
It's still early days. Who knows if Kamala's momentum continues, or if it lasts. Right now it's looking like there's more upside ahead than not. Kamala can expect additional momentum from her upcoming VP announcement and the Democratic National Convention, not to mention Trump's potential exposure in his upcoming criminal procedures. It's still entirely likely that Trump gets sentenced for his fraud convictions before the election, after all.
There will be a lot more to say and write about this in the coming days. It remains to be seen how, exactly the electoral math will change with these new candidates. In general, Harris' numbers are up pretty much across the board, but so far the most notable difference appears to be in Georgia, with polls now showing a tied race in a state that was previously considered to be a long shot for Biden.
It is hard to see this as anything other than a colossal misstep for Republicans. They were hammering Biden hard to drop out of the race, but clearly never countenanced the idea that he may actually do so. Now, much like the dog who caught the car, they got what they wanted and have no idea what to do with it. That error in strategy may end up costing them the election.
