The Ephemeric

Interpretation
The first thing that jumps out from the results is that the polling averages were actually quite good this year. Pollsters took a lot of stick in both 2016 and 2020 for underestimating Trump's numbers, and while he will overperform the projected margins by around 2%, it is not an especially high error and well within normal expectations. Unfortunately for Kamala, the polls were close enough that a small error was enough to swing the race. This is democracy, sometimes you win close races, sometimes you lose them.

But while he was considered to have a good chance of victory, this result does still come as something of a surprise. The polls were close, but he did nevertheless trail Kamala Harris consistently, particularly among the so-called higher quality and more reputable pollsters. In actual fact, these pollsters ended up being less accurate than the averages. Selzer, the revered gold standard pollster of Iowa, known for being typically spot on in her state, endured an astonishing 17% miss, while other top of the line pollsters like Marist and Muhlenberg will end up 4-5% off. For whatever reason, these more established pollsters clearly have issues reaching Trump voters that has not been fully understood. The relative accuracy of the averages will certainly place a feather in the cap of all the data evangelists, many of whom had been taking stick for these views during the campaign.

Conversely, many of the other typical indicators failed miserably. The special elections, the primaries, the economic metrics and fundraising data, all pointed to a strong year for Democrats, which ultimately did not come to pass. Earlier in the cycle, Nate Cohn of NYT made waves for suggesting that this may indicate disproportionate strength for Trump among lower propensity voters, a prediction which, in hindsight, has turned out to be dead on. A lot of analysts (myself included) owe Nate a big apology for doubting him.

The results of this election will additionally require a radical rethink of how we conduct a political campaign. By any traditional measure, Kamala's campaign was light years ahead of Trump's. Trump had basically no ground game, no get out the vote operation, very little direct fundraising, was poorly disciplined and flopped at every traditional milestone, ie the debate, the convention. This all appears to have had no effect on the outcome, and it is clear that the things politicos consider to be essential infrastructure for a Presidential campaign may no longer be all that meaningful in this day and age.

So the big question on everyone's mind will be, why did this happen. This is a candidate who barely lucked his way to victory in 2016, and led his party to resounding defeat in every election since. During that time he attempted to violently overthrow the US Government, was found by a court to have raped a woman, convicted of felony fraud, to only scratch the surface. It was one thing when he won in 2016 as an unknown quantity and change candidate, but in 2024 we know what to expect, we know the chaos and ruination his first term brought to the country. Most people will be watching this and wondering, how did he suddenly become more popular than ever?

I hate to sound glib, or dismissive of my fellow Americans, but there really is no other way to say it. There are a lot of voters who simply are not well informed and have only a vague awareness of all of these things, and/or morally detached to the point where they just don't care about it. I say this not as an insult. I think there is a problem with the highly engaged, terminally online political enthusiast assuming that everyone else will be seeing the same news coverage as them, hearing the same sound bites. People really don't appreciate how politically disengaged the median voter is. I speak to Trump supporters all the time who tell me that they like him because he's "funny" or "entertaining". They know him as that businessman from the TV, and pretty much tune out the rest as "political stuff". That's really what it comes down to. Democrats can get outraged all they want (rightly) about January 6, your typical voter really isn't thinking about that. It doesn't affect them directly, so it's not their problem. Democrats have yet to find a solution to this.

It also can't be ignored that Trump has twice won against female candidates, and lost to a straight white man. As unseemly as it is to say, it seems pretty clear that America is still a pretty bigoted country that may not be ready to elect a woman President. One has to wonder if they may have been better served sticking with Biden, despite his issues. As much as I hate to say, this needs to be taken into account. The presumed "next in line" candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer may simply be too high risk for America's voters.

I would also like to give credit to Joe Biden. He has not been a bad President by any means. He was dealt an abysmal hand, dug the country out of a ditch and created something of an economic miracle. But it is clear that he should never have run for a second term. Dropping out when he did was probably still the right call, but it left Democrats with an untested candidate that no one had voted for, with a tiny amount of time to build a campaign. Had he declined to run for a second term from the start, and allowed a full primary process to play out, might things have turned out differently?

So what comes next? Understandably there is a great deal of fear in the country today, uncertainty as to what a second Trump term might bring. There has been a lot of talk of fascism, Project 2025, Trump turning the army on his own people and all manner of things. I have to say, as much as I dislike Trump, I think these fears are somewhat overblown. The fact is that the Office of President has quite limited powers in many ways, especially with thin majorities in Congress. In reality, there's only so much damage he can do in four years, and most of it is easily reversible by his successor. So for now, I don't really buy that this is the end of the Republic as some are saying, just another four years of chaotic governance for us to endure.

To be clear, that is not to diminish the seriousness of what has happened. A great many people's lives will be directly affected by America's choice. People will almost certainly die as a result of his abortion and healthcare positions. There is nothing good about what the next four years has to offer, but it really is just four years, after which America will have another chance to make a better choice. 

The more significant impact may well be felt overseas, where Trump's pro-Russia policies will leave the rest of the world in a precarious and unsafe position. The situation in Ukraine will become dire without American support, and there's every indication that Putin's wars of aggression will not stop at Kyiv. Europe will need to step up its game in the absence of American leadership. The Middle East is also likely to become even bloodier. Trump has no interest in helping Gaza or Palestine and will just let Netanyahu run roughshod over the region. I would not be at all surprised if he subsequently dragged us into a war with Iran as a result.

There is no denying that this is a sad day. It is sad that the rule of law will not be upheld with respect to the crimes committed by Donald Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists. It is embarrassing for Americans to have made this choice after everything that has happened, and the disaster that was Trump's first term. America has sadly failed its gravest test. Its institutions have failed utterly, and shown itself to be a nation of ignorance and corruption. If Putin's goal over this past decade has been to shine a spotlight on how ineffective, dysfunctional and vulnerable to manipulation western liberal democracies are, he has unquestionably proven this beyond doubt. That's the sad truth. 2020 appeared to be a turning point in that conflict, a redemption for America and our system of democracy. Instead it has turned out to be a mere temporary setback for Putin. I fear that culture war has now been lost, and that is a fact that America will need to grapple with going forward.