Saturday, 18 January 2025
Had we been writing this article two years ago, the mood would have been quite different. As hard as it is to believe now, Joe Biden's Presidency began in the best possible way. A (seemingly) successful defence of American democracy, a revitalisation of the economy after the ruination of the Trump era, historic and consequential legislation, remarkably passed with bipartisan support. Joe Biden was never a glamorous President, but for two years it looked as though he would be remembered as a President of consequence. Things change.
For some, Joe Biden will be remembered as one of the most consequential one-term presidents in U.S. history; leading the nation out of a pandemic, successfully driving major legislation through a divided Congress, and overseeing the creation of nearly 17 million jobs. A modern LBJ. But others will see Biden as a stubborn octogenarian who failed to deliver on his promise to be a transitional figure. While he did eventually step aside, by that time, it was too late.
Biden’s departure marks the end of a political career spanning over 50 years, one that saw him serve as a senator, vice president, and president. His presidency, in many ways, was a tale of two halves. Biden pursued transformative initiatives with remarkable speed. In 2021, his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package temporarily halved child poverty, accelerated vaccinations, and created millions of jobs. By year’s end, he signed a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill to rebuild roads, bridges, and broadband networks, preparing communities for climate challenges.
In 2022, Biden delivered landmark legislation, including the Chips and Science Act, which invested $52 billion to secure domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation in U.S. history, tackling healthcare costs, tax reform, and clean energy investment. He also enacted the first major federal gun control measures in 30 years, improving background checks and encouraging red flag laws.
Biden defied expectations in the 2022 midterms, outperforming historical norms and avoiding the traditional losses faced by sitting presidents. However, this success emboldened his decision to run for re-election, ignoring growing concerns about his age. When doubts intensified following a disastrous debate with Trump in 2024, Biden reluctantly stepped aside, endorsing Kamala Harris. Her subsequent defeat marked a grim return of Trump to the presidency.
It would be easy to point to high inflation or immigration anxieties over the past four years as the downfall of the Biden administration. But would they have been, if not for Biden's worsening cognitive issues? These are, after all, not new or worsening issues, and certainly not specific to or worse in the US over the past few years. In fact both declined in severity during Biden's Presidency, relative to their levels during the administration of his predecessor. Alternatively, might they have been allayed had Biden stepped aside sooner, allowing for a real Democratic primary and full campaign season for his party's eventual nominee? Given the narrowness of Trump's victory, it is not unreasonable to think that any one of these factors being different may have resulted in a different outcome.
It would also be dishonest not to mention the role of far right propaganda. None of Biden's failings or flaws explains why many Americans looked to the economic collapse and mass death of the first Trump Presidency and felt that to be a desirable option, nor why so many people felt that voting for a sexual-assaulting convicted criminal, who literally attempted to overturn the results of a democratic election, was justified. It doesn't explain why young people voted for Trump thinking that the man most responsible for the end of abortion rights would be the person to reinstate them. It also doesn't explain why Biden ultimately took blame for inflation that spiked during the Trump era and declined thereafter, or an Afghanistan withdrawal that was planned and committed to by his predecessor.
Let's be clear though, what one person calls propaganda, another would call effective messaging. It is undeniable that the global far right movement has mastered misinformation. You may not like it, but this is what wins political campaigns and always has been, and the Putinist/Trumpist global far right movement has pretty much mastered the art form, and the fall of an otherwise highly effective Biden Presidency is another massive reminder that the west has yet to come up with effective countermeasures.
For me, the fatal flaw of the Joe Biden administration will have been its naivete. Perhaps it was overconfidence from his 2020 and 2022 victories, but Biden's administration seems to have settled into the notion that the anti-democratic threat to America would be defeated by idealism, good faith actions, and an adherence to norms. The tepid response to systemic corruption, the slow-walking of prosecution of leading insurrectionist figures, a complete failure to recognise that these unprecedented threats require a bold new approach. Far too often, Biden would take the politically safe approach, refuse to challenge America's failing institutions, and the result is that we are right back where we started.
In truth, it's a combination of all of these factors that will colour Joe Biden's place in history. His accomplishments shouldn't be overlooked. But neither should his failings. Persistently high inflation, noticeable physical decline, and, frankly, the effectiveness of far right propaganda all contributed to a disastrous 2024 campaign. For whatever else he did before, that failure, and the likely national harm that this failure brings, will inevitably define his legacy.
