james debate
james debate

Sunday, 2 March 2025

  

oscars 86th academy awards 2014
Welcome back to The Ephemeric. It is Oscar season again, and once again March is the month in which I know not the light of day. I could make the same joke as last year by copy pasting the intro blurb, but instead I'll just get straight to some predictions so we can all go on with our day.

Honestly, this is a fairly mediocre year for movies, and it's hard to imagine any of them living too long in the memory. But, the flip side of this is that for once we actually have a somewhat competitive Awards season, with a number of prizes that could truly be given to any of multiple contenders. As usual, I will predict the likely winner for each prize, and then bore everyone  with why I think the Academy was wrong. Ready? Alright, let's get to it.


Best Picture

Nominations:
  • Anora – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker, producers
  • The Brutalist – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim, and Brady Corbet, producers
  • A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, James Mangold, and Alex Heineman, producers
  • Conclave – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman, producers
  • Dune: Part Two – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve, producers
  • Emilia Pérez – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, producers
  • I'm Still Here – Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, producers
  • Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes, producers
  • The Substance – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, and Eric Fellner, producers
  • Wicked – Marc Platt, producer
And the winner: Anora
Who should really win: None of the above
Explanation: Honestly, I think this year's best picture lineup is a fairly poor selection. Anora was fine, Dune is fine. But arguably the best films this year, the likes of Saturday Night (my personal favourite) and A Real Pain, weren't even nominated. Of the above, I would probably go for Anora, but it's not a ringing endorsement.


Best Director

Nominations:
  • Sean Baker – Anora
  • Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
  • James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
  • Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
  • Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
And the winner: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Who should really win: None of the above
Explanation: Once again, I have no strong feeling about the direction in any of these films, but the consensus seems to be forming around the Brutalist, more for its cinematography than anything genuinely related to direction.


Best Actor

Nominations:
  • Adrien Brody – The Brutalist as László Tóth
  • Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown as Bob Dylan
  • Colman Domingo – Sing Sing as John "Divine G" Whitfield
  • Ralph Fiennes – Conclave as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence
  • Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice as Donald Trump
And the winner: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist as László Tóth
Who should really win: Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown as Bob Dylan
Explanation: This is a close one to call. I think Chalamet deserves it. For an actor that has been so hyped, his recent roles are beginning to show true range, and his portrayal of Bob Dylan might just be his most impressive showing yet.


Best Actress

Nominations:
  • Cynthia Erivo – Wicked as Elphaba Thropp
  • Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez as Emilia Pérez / Juan "Manitas" Del Monte
  • Mikey Madison – Anora as Anora "Ani" Mikheeva
  • Demi Moore – The Substance as Elisabeth Sparkle
  • Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here as Eunice Paiva
And the winner: Mikey Madison – Anora as Anora "Ani" Mikheeva
Who should really win: Mikey Madison – Anora as Anora "Ani" Mikheeva
Explanation: I'll go along with this one. Anora has really caught something in Hollywood, and a lot of that comes down to Mikey Madison's performance. Sympathetic, layered, a genuine talent.


Best Supporting Actor

Nominations:
  • Yura Borisov – Anora as Igor
  • Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan
  • Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown as Pete Seeger
  • Guy Pearce – The Brutalist as Harrison Lee Van Buren Sr.
  • Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice as Roy Cohn
And the winnerKieran Culkin – A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan
Who should really win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan
Explanation: Another one I agree with. A Real Pain was one of the better films of 2024, and Culkin's performance was for me the single best across all categories this year.


Best Supporting Actress

Nominations:
  • Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown as Joan Baez
  • Ariana Grande – Wicked as Galinda "Glinda" Upland
  • Felicity Jones – The Brutalist as Erzsébet Tóth
  • Isabella Rossellini – Conclave as Sister Agnes
  • Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez as Rita Mora Castro
And the winnerZoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez as Rita Mora Castro
Who should really win: Ariana Grande – Wicked as Galinda "Glinda" Upland
Explanation: I know, I'm surprised by this pick as well. I'm not a huge Wicked fan, and I'm not a huge Ariana fan, but I really can't deny that she absolutely nailed this role. I underestimated her comedic talents.


Best Original Screenplay

Nominations:
  • Anora – Sean Baker
  • The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
  • A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
  • September 5 – Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
  • The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
And the winnerAnora – Sean Baker
Who should really win: A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
Explanation: Unpopular opinion. I like Anora, I thought it was an impactful movie, well made, well written. I think A Real Pain has more to say and says it better.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominations:
  • A Complete Unknown – James Mangold and Jay Cocks
  • Conclave – Peter Straughan
  • Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi
  • Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
  • Sing Sing – Screenplay by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John "Divine G" Whitfield
And the winner: Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Who should really win: No strong opinion
Explanation: One could go either way on these nominees. I think the Academy will go for Nickel Boys for the social commentary.


So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first! 






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